Robbie Dinwoodie in an article in the IScot Magazine this month noted that Nicola Sturgeon has to take into account the ” now is not the time” factor. If, as seems certain, Westminster declines to give permission for a second independence referendum, what then? While the article is about the growth commission report I found what Robbie said about indy2 the most important part.
Now in July Westminster debated a motion put forward by Ian Blackford, SNP Westminster leader , That this House endorses the principles of the Claim of Right for Scotland, agreed by the Scottish Constitutional Convention in 1989 and by the Scottish Parliament in 2012, and therefore acknowledges the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of government best suited to their needs. The motion was passed without a division, but it will mean nothing.
Does anyone think for one minute that Westminster will agree to another referendum on Scottish Independence? I don’t. I think they will fight tooth and nail to make sure it doesn’t happen anytime soon, they will fight for as long as they can, and if we are somehow able to force a vote they will try to put stupid conditions like the rubbish spouted by Vince Cable, Leader of the Liberal Democrats, this week and covered by WoS . Labour of course will not back another independence referendum no matter what happens as a result of Brexit. Scottish people could be starving in their millions and Scottish Labour will blame the SNP and join with their masters in the Conservative Party to deny Scotland its democratic rights.
Now back in 2016 I blogged about UDI-The Ghost in the Room! This blog opened up a debate and a half with some arguing I needed to be patient, that indy2 would happen after Brexit was passed in 2017, some commented about wording and others about opinion polls. All valid points and even today the polls have not shifted from 2014 all that much in the face of the most vile Government in my lifetime, that just makes me despair to be honest but what do we do when Westminster says no?
Now Independence is a condition of a nation, country, or state in which its residents and population, or some portion thereof, exercise self-government, and usually sovereignty, over the territory. The opposite of independence is the status of a dependent territory. The opposite is pretty much what we have now isn’t it, unionists call it a union but the reality is we are just a territory of England as far as they are concerned, most of them believe it and some even say it. Now the SNP will hold their conference in October and many in the party, and the YES movement, will be looking out for some idea as to how we move forward because we have to move forward, we can’t stand still.
So what will they propose? A time line for another Section 30 order, I just don’t see it. Will they propose a consultative referendum, again I can’t see it, and even if they did you can bet your arse that the unionists would make sure that as many unionists as possible did not take part to make the result nil and void, and able to be ignored by Westminster and pretty much the rest of the world, as it surely would be. Do we continue to march until we have marched to the top of the hill and back down again 500 million times. Do we continue to vote in a majority of SNP MPs that can be ignored at Westminster or do we get Holyrood to declare UDI? The Scottish Parliament in 1706 passed the Act of Union so surely the Scottish parliament today can revoke it? Probably not as some lawyer would tell you, and Adam Tompkins from the Tories screams until he gets as red as a beetroot, but who cares, why don’t we. Scotland is going to be impoverished either way so we might as well just revoke the bloody thing, stick it in the SNP manifesto, and take the lead from Dr Tim Haughton of Birmingham University and guess what, the Tory Party and
‘Take back control’ effectively combined not just a sense of a positive future albeit never defined or elaborated, but also suggested a sense of rightful ownership. Moreover, it helped to mobilize the anti-establishment support of voters who felt let down by their politicians. The Brexit referendum, as referendums are so often, was only driven in part by the question on the ballot paper. Frustrated by the sense that the political class had failed them, many ordinary citizens took the opportunity to vent their fury.
Dr Tim Haughton
I appreciate many, or most of you, will not agree with this blog so please, and I am really interested, tell me what you will do when Westminster says ” now is not the time”.
What then?
grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com 
Everyone bangs on about Independence and when it should happen, which is absolutely fine, but we need to win it it’s that’s what is important. I was at the Hope over fear gathering in Glasgow on 15.09.18, and I agreed with Peter A Bell, I know he wanted it to happen sooner than later, this has been disappointing for all of us. The British state aren’t interested in the people of Scotland that’s clear, there only interested in the land we occupy. I do agree with you Bruce that the Queen and her government will not allow Scotland to have another vote and the trouble for the UK government is that it’s had to take steps that they would never wanted to take that meant the break up of the UK, like Brexit and taking the Scottish government to court over powers that belong to the Scottish government. The trouble is that in reality the country Britain has never existed it’s a smoke screen because we are all part of England it’s that simple and the only thing that matter to the likes of Theresa May or Vince Cable is that the pretense of this union continues. I love Scotland and most of all love being Scottish, you only have to look at the past to see that Independence isn’t going to come easy and I believe that Brexit will be simple compared to what Nicola sturgeon will have to go through in order to achieve independence, this woman and the SNP will need everyone of the 125000 members and official observers at any independence vote we have because our friends and neighbours can’t be trusted.
100%Yes
I agree that as far as too many are concerned we are just north England, and it will be a far harder fight than Brexit but we need to have a plan for the way forward, and wither the SNP like it or not they are going to have to articulate more of it or risk really high levels of frustration. For some we are impatient, but for most it is that we are running out of time to keep the pressure on, esp if Ireland goes for unification then we will be in an even harder fight as I believe Westminster would be more than happy for a united Ireland and to get rid of the north and concentrate on keeping Great Britain together. I think we have to be ready to go at the same time, we need to ramp up the pressure at the same time as the Irish and make the English, and the Unionists, feel that it is just not worth the fight and convince English voters that they need to take back control and be England again, we need to convince them that the UK is over, it won’t be easy but may well be the way to go. We have got to get them angry and sick of us, playing the game their way won’t achieve that so the SNP have a choice to make.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
“Whatever happens with Brexit, Scotland will always be able to hold a vote on its future. The Scottish Parliament can hold a consultative referendum without Westminster’s permission. That won’t change after Brexit. Pro-independence parties in Scotland will always be able to turn any future Scottish elections into a plebiscite election on independence, without Westminster’s permission. That won’t change after Brexit either. In fact, even if the British Government abolished Holyrood entirely, Scotland’s pro indy parties would still be able to convert a Westminster General Election in Scotland into a plebiscite election.”
There are many legitimate routes to independence.
1) Binding referendum
2) Consultative referendum
3) >50% pro-indy popular vote at a Holyrood election
4) >50% pro-indy popular vote at a Westminster election
All of them rests upon one thing – convincing a majority of the Scottish electorate that independence is the most preferable option.
Dissolving the Union without first obtaining and/or confirming the above popular support is a fantasy – see: https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2018/09/08/there-is-no-cheat-mode/
There was a recent poll which told us 52% could vote for indy if Brexit happens. 51% could vote against if it doesn’t happen. So be it, the people of Scotland are collectively waiting to see what becomes of Brexit. I don’t like it, but that’s the reality.
And we still have time. I’m getting sick of telling you this, but the 2016 mandate doesn’t expire until March 2021. We have time for a referendum in late 2019 or the whole of 2020. And if Westminster successfully stalls and blocks and kicks into the long grass IndyRef2? I can vote for the SNP again in 2021. Or, if they dare abolish Holyrood, in 2022.
I think the question about agreement to honour Indyref2 should be presented at every Prime Minister’s Questions. The Brexit determination to protect the tax havens might just be the opportunity to exasperate them enough to say, “Bring it on!” instead of “now is not the time”.
Jim
Wee Ginger Dug has an interesting blog about when NS will make a move and worth a read, he has the patience of a saint. Certainly more than I do and more astute and politically smart but I do think the SNP need to up the pressure like you, I think the softly softly approach is too risky and plays into the unionists hands too much. We have played their games long enough.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
Type this into google , does the UN recognise Scotland as a country . The answer might change how we go about getting independence . For me we have a lot of ways we could use to be independent , if they say no or not now , it doesn’t matter anymore , we the people have that power not Westminster . The best thing is they agree that we the people of Scotland have the right to choose who governs us , they walked right into the biggest own goal ever when Westminster was asked about Scottish sovereignty earlier this year . I hear your frustration we all want it yesterday , but we have to make sure we win because if we lose we are feked .
Ricky
The last legal thing I read was that Scotland, like England, Wales and Northern Ireland, is a nation but not a country as it has shared sovereignty with the others countries but we know that means we are a colony of England. How we have put up with that state of affairs for over 300 years is beyond me and it was not popular at the time no matter what that nutter History Woman says. I have no idea why they agreed to the Scottish people being sovereign, there must be a hole in it somewhere for the Tories to concede it so readily. I understand the need to be patient but we are running out of time, the information today that the UK is working with the EU to make sure that any deal on NI cannot apply to Scotland tells us all about how underhanded the UK is and that Better Together is alive and kicking but it also tells us that the EU is no friend either. We need to up the pressure Ricky or be left behind, a united Ireland is coming and we will be the last colony standing with no means of excape.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
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