Could 2022 possibly be the final year of the Union?

Mark Smith of the Herald writes the big article for the new year in the Herald this year and for me the article sums up a big problem we have in the independence movement and one of the main reason why 2022 will not be the end of the union. The article is a middle class take on the divisions that we face in the UK right now and Mark sets up the article pretty early on when he says of getting together with his friends  “We had Remainers and Brexiters. We had Tories and socialists. We had trans rights supporters and trans rights doubters. We had some who were uber-strict about obeying coronavirus rules, and we had anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers.

Remarkably, the only issue we weren’t divided on was Scottish independence – we would all vote No – but on everything else we were friends disunited”. 

There in lays one of the big problems we have in any future referendum or plebiscite election, we know from John Curtice in the aftermath of the 2014 referendum that 65% of those living in one of the 20% most deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland voted Yes, compared with just 36% of those in the one-fifth most affluent”. Curtice found that those who own their homes outright (the better off and the older) were only 32% for independence. With a mortgage, it rose to 41%. But “yes” support was around half of those in council homes or with housing associations.

This problem, Mark Smith being a perfect example of the type of person possibly taking this view, is that the union since 1707 works for those with the most and does not work for those with the least. Mark goes on to say in his article of his group of friends “we agree on the big issues of diversity: equality between men and women, racial equality and gay equality. We agree on most of the things we can be proud of as Brits: the NHS, diversity, equality, community”. These are both the type of people who, and I accept I am making an assumption, now vote SNP and are no voters, they can also afford to hold those views because let’s be honest, when you are worried about paying the rent, putting the heating on, feeding your kids, the security of your zero hour minimum wage job you don’t have that luxury and the union does not work for you does it.

The simple reality we face right now is that  those living in their own homes, who work in the more lucrative white collar jobs, are less likely to support independence. We also know through Barrhead Boy 72% of English people living in Scotland voted for London rule over Edinburgh rule in 2014, it is safe to assume that those moving to Scotland, who could afford it, are either middle class, older, or both. They probably also vote SNP now in many cases so convincing them is going to be impossible, the union also works for them.

Marks article hits home to me the depressing picture of the New Scotland that the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon have brought about in the last 6 years, it’s of a devolved Scotland that those who could yet again tip our constitutional future to another no vote are happy to inhabit, they can afford to live in the areas where the best schools are, they won’t go hungry, they won’t struggle to pay their rent, they benefit (like we all do of course) from not paying for many things at the point of need like prescriptions, if they are older they don’t pay for travel, the union works for them.

So no the union will not end in 2022, the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon, her elected reps, and people possibly like Mark and his friends have no desire to see it end, it works for them, it just doesn’t work for the rest of us.

 

 

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