One day to go, thank *

Last day of the 2021 Election Campaign and to be honest I am glad as it has been the most boring and flat election campaign that I can remember, it didn’t have to be that way of course. If the media hadn’t blocked the Alba Party from the debates and basically from everything then we could have at least had a debate, I also believe what I have read on social media that Sturgeon basically refused to appear in the debates if Alex Salmond was included, that just makes perfect sense to me as he would have kicked all their asses and it would have been deserved. Anyway I decided this morning to have a look at the papers and they can’t make up their minds, or it is a plan to just keep soft voters confused. The Scotsman has the SNP facing a terrible election while the Metro says the SNP will win an outright majority, they both can’t be right can they.

The Daily Mail is going with the whole 24 hours to save the Union crap while the Times says that independence is only supported by 45% of the voters, what is it, is the Union at risk or is not at risk. Personally I don’t think the union is at risk any time soon to be honest. The SNP only mention independence when they need to try to firm up their vote for the next 5 years of stringing us all along, at Westminster SNP MPs in the main are an embarrassment to be honest, what do they actually achieve for Scotland, not a hell of a lot if you ask me and they don’t hold the Tories to account, that is just the bullshit they feed us to accept them taking up their seats in a parliament in another country that just has them there for the banter factor.

The National go with how useless Scottish Conservative Leader Douglas Ross is, doesn’t take a journalist to point that out at all to anyone who has seen him, he is the worst of the worst but are any of them any good. Willie Rennie, Scottish Lib Dems,  is a seat warmer, achieved nothing in how many years and comes across as a bit of a clown. Anas Sarwar, millionaire leader of Scottish Labour, is a light weight and brings nothing to the table at all by the way of any sort of plan for Scotland. Patrick Harvie, C0-Leader Scottish Greens, has become all woke and unlikable now to the point of coming across as a real nasty piece of gender warrior now. Nicola Sturgeon, Leader SNP, definitely comes across the best in a low bar but I despise her now. Another woke warrior who has a nasty side and who has been in power far too long now no matter the result tomorrow (or Saturday). Alex Salmond, Leader Alba Party, by far the most impressive (hopefully elected soon) politician out of the bunch but he will never ever be allowed to forget that as an innocent man he is really a guilty man because Nicola Sturgeon, the unionist, the media, have all decided that no matter what the law says if they say you are guilty, you are guilty end of.

Ok my predictions and please take into account I am rarely that close but I am always hopeful.

The SNP will win the election, yeah I know. They had 61 seats before the election and I think they will at least have 61 seats after it but I would go as far as saying they could reach 65, maybe a few more. Sturgeon sadly will remain First Minister even if Willie Rennie stands against her.

The Scottish Conservatives had 30 seats before the election and I suspect that they will lose some, not a huge amount given how crap Scottish Labour are so I think they will have at least 25 seats or there about and probably enough to finish second again. They will probably lose a constituency and on the list.

Scottish Labour 23 seats before the election and I think they will lose some this time around given how crap they are. I can see the Greens taking some seats from them so I will go for Scottish Labour only having around 20 seats this time around and finishing third.

Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 seats before the election and at best they will keep 5 seats but it would not surprise if they lose a list seat here or there so I will go for them taking 4 or 5 seats and remaining nothing more than a plook in Holyrood.

Scottish Greens 5 seats before the elections and it looks like they will probably increase their vote share via the list so I will go for them to get 7 seats, maybe as much as 10 seats even though Patrick Harvie is one of the most annoying gender warriors out there.

The Alba Party obviously no seats before the election and while I really hope they make in roads into the parliament I don’t think they will make the impact they hope to, they launched too late and I understand why but I think they could get 1 or 2 seats and I really hope they do as we need an alternative independence party in Scotland and Alba need time to build up their base and their brand. I really hope they do well but I think will have to settle for 1 or 2 seats this time around at best and 0 at worst but I hope they get something to build towards 2024 and 2026.

There you have it, what do you all think will be the result?

 

 

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10 Responses to One day to go, thank *

  1. 100%Yes says:

    Sturgeon was asked repeatedly about what she would do if a section 30 order was refused NO ANSWER and this is where we have been since she been leader of the SNP. Sturgeon was also being told that no UK PM will be granting a section 30 order for her lifetime, I fail to see what her objective is if it isn’t the courts, so if Sturgeon isn’t going to hold an illegal referendum and she goes and ask for a section 30 order and its refused then what alternative has she got other than the courts if indeed she intends to allow the Scots to vote in a referendum, so why did she go out of her way to destroy Martin Keatings court case. I will be honest if the Alba Party returns 1 MSP this will give me more hope than if the SNP returned 129 MSP. After watching these leader debates if it wasn’t for Independence I would vote for any of these parties because the Alba Party wouldn’t exist.

    • 100%YES

      I’ve always thought as well that at least 1 seat for Alba would be a success as they just need a foot in the door, if they were able to get more than that and had say Salmond and MacAskill in Holyrood that would put some pressure on the SNP. I don’t believe Sturgeon will do much for independence, she will string out the pandemic for as long as she can and then only go for a referendum at the last minute, probably a year before the next elections knowing the English Government will go to court ,if they haven’t already changed the Scotland Act, and then Sturgeon will ask the gullible for yet another mandate, I really can’t stand her now at all. I switch off the tv if she comes on as I am just not interested at all in anything she has to say. I think we are looking at pretty much the same with the Greens maybe being the big winners in some ways but they are a horrible party and it would just demonstrate how thick many SNP members are in Scotland backing those planks rather than Alba.

      Thanks for commenting. Bruce

      ________________________________

  2. 100%Yes says:

    All idiots promoting both votes for SNP well what can you say, I have no idea how may times SNP MSP, MEP or even MP & Councillors and even Gordon Ross him self stating both votes for SNP are wasted, some people are just dreadfully slow to take on board the voting system in Scotland. Sturgeon was asked repeatedly if a section 30 order is refused what alternative route will the SNP take and she didn’t have a answer because she doesn’t have one she was also told that the UK wouldn’t give a section 30 order for her lifetime this is very important I don’t expect every to grasp it because if you can’t grasp the voting system your not going grasp this, the UK is being democratic by informing the the electorate that even if the SNP get a majority the UK isn’t going to grant a section 30 order in Sturgeon lifetime. Hence the importance of the Alba Party and the position its taken on the constitutional question, here’s where a former leader with experience in dealing with the UK and the Statement Mr Salmond made prior to the TV debate was so important to start the process on day one of the new parliament because when the former FM was negotiating with the UK it took 4.5yrs to being Independent. Some of us who do want Independence and know the voting system we can only hope that after May 6th the Alba Party will get at leased 1 MSP to keep the Independence dream going and if there isn’t any then anyone wanting Independence will not see a referendum in the next 5yrs as stated by Sturgeon with her no response.

    • 100%YES

      I just don’t see a referendum any time soon unless something big changes and it probably won’t. We really need the SNP MPs to take no part in any of the processes in Westminster other than being a pain in the arse in the chamber and they should only go to the chamber when it is something to do with Scotland, other than that don’t take part and start to send a message but they won’t. The both votes strategy told me all I needed to know that the SNP were not serious and were taking the yes community for fools, I am not even voting SNP tomorrow at all, that horse bolted a long time ago now, Alba on the list and that will be it for myself. You’re correct though, Section 30 is a folly and a we’re be played for mugs.

      Thanks for commenting. Bruce

      ________________________________

  3. Really don’t know what I want…

    1. SNP overall majority and then doing nothing about indy so that even the most blinkered cultist can see it?
    2. SNP short of a majority and having to rely on Alba?

    No idea. I’m desperate for a strong Alba representation though as I want to see them bring forward an indy bill and the SNP be seen to be fighting against it. Sturgeon is definitely in the last chance saloon. No movement on indy (and there won’t be) before the next Westminster election and she can kiss goodbye to most of her MPs and the short money the party badly needs.

    • David

      You are probably right to be honest but I would prefer the SNP needing someone like Alba but I just don’t think they have given themselves enough time to make the breakthrough and Sturgeon with the help of her state funded media have kept them out of the debate, shamefully. I despise the SNP and Sturgeon more and more every day, as well as the Greens, but fingers crossed for an Alba breakthrough and a chance for some pressure on the SNP because if not then we are all going to have to accept that Sturgeon will do nothing in the next 5 years and if that were to happen I would hope that would be the end of her and the SNP if need be.

      Thanks for commenting. Bruce

      ________________________________

  4. rovivorltd says:

    How does the possibility of defections to Alba by SNP MSP’s and MP’s stack up. My thoughts are if Alba win at least a couple of seats and have a presents in Hollyrood. Surely any MSP can move party and avoid the whip if not liking the woke agenda of the SNP and greens.

    Maybe just wishful thinking.

    • Rov

      Any MSP could defect now if they chose to and some might in the medium term but I suspect too many are too afraid to lose their jobs and the lifestyle in gives them. I hope Alba get a foot in the door I really do but time will tell and fingers crossed as we really do need an alternative Independence Party.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

      Sent from my iPhone

  5. duncanio says:

    “Personally I don’t think the union is at risk any time soon to be honest.” I agree with that sentiment.

    So it doesn’t really matter who wins and what the pecking order it thereafter and I am not really interested in how any of the parties do apart from ALBA so it is the latter’s prospects that I have been analysing:

    In looking at the likely outcome I would ignore the Savanta/Comres polls – they consistently have ‘Others’ (excluding ALBA) on 6%-9% on the List. That’s much higher than the other half-dozen pollsters which post 1%-3%. Plus Savanta/Comres have been forced by the BPC to make significant revisions to THREE of their “Yes” results earlier this year after a methodological error was uncovered. So they have a credibility problem and look like a bit of an outlier (for whatever reason).

    Ignoring them, a simple unweighted (by volume) arithmetic average show Alba on 3.6%. If there is a uniform spread throughout the regions then that implies zero seats. However, if concentrated in some then they could return MSPs. On the other hand, if Panelbase have it correct then they could get representation in all regions.

    On this I am hearing, from J Curtice, that ALBA are doing better in the North-East – the Salmond factor perhaps?

    OK, I’m coming off the fence now:

    I’m taking the view that a combination of support at the higher end of the opinion polls plus it being proportionately higher in certain areas will result in decent representation for the party:

    I’m forecasting 4 seats for ALBA.

    Further, I’ll attempt a prediction by region:

    Central Scotland: Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh
    Lothian: Kenny MacAskill
    North-East Scotland: Alex Salmond
    West Scotland: Chris McEleny

    I’ll have to leave it there as I’ve got another simulation to run on my abacus.

    • Duncanio

      You are probably more up on the polls and what they mean than myself as I don’t tend to follow them all that closely other than seeing something posted by James Kelly. I hope Alba get a foot in the door and I live in the North East and know a few people who have went over to Alba from SNP/Green so hopefully that means something as if they can get a foothold, I think they can build on that I really do and I would love to see Alex Salmond back in politics as we really need someone who will actually fight for independence because Sturgeon won’t. Other than potentially Alba I actually don’t expect much movement other than sadly Partrick Harvie and the Greens and that is no longer a good thing, they have become so far up their own arse they are a problem now as far as I am concerned and will do more damage than good, I would still love Sturgeon to lose to Sarwar, won’t happen but it would be so funny and especially if she lost out on the list to one of her fixed candidates.

      Thanks for commenting. Bruce

      ________________________________

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