This tweet was pointed out to me last night on social media and I was just not surprised when I saw it at all. It is an extract from an email that Alyn Smith MP sent to his constituency SNP members in Stirling and is just depressing to be honest as it is clearly out of the Pete Wishart MP 60% in the polls mentality regarding the timing of not even the next independence referendum but just getting bloody moving again on the issue. On the back of the highest poll rating in favour of independence that I can remember we are told to wait even longer, according to Smith the polls are encouraging but we have a long way to go. Smith says the SNP are holding the Tories to account even thought they lose every vote in the English Parliament and are sneered at, what is it that Smith doesn’t get.
I’ve been going on about this since 2018 when Wishart came out with his crap about the 60% in the polls over a long period rubbish. Another independence referendum is not going to happen next year and I don’t care what anyone says. First things first Westminster, supported by the unionist parties, will not agree with one for a start. That will result in never ending bluster from Ian Blackford in the House of Commons and headlines in the National. The SNP will then discuss the issue for a year or so then maybe they will go to court, that will be dragged out as long as the British can manage and we will have no guarantee that the Supreme Court will even support the idea that the Scottish people are sovereign and support democracy, it is a British Court and a Tory Government supported by all of the English Parties and Scottish branch offices.
We will then get more bluster and moaning from SNP MPs in Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood who may have passed a bill at this point to hold a referendum, but don’t bet on it. Nicola Sturgeon said there will be a draft bill “That is why, before the end of this [Scottish] parliament, we will publish a draft bill for an independence referendum — setting out the terms of a future referendum clearly and unambiguously to the people of Scotland,”(Financial Times). I challenge anyone to find any where this bill is in Protecting Scotland 2020-21 the Governments programme for Scotland. I can’t see draft bill anywhere, there is the Referendums Act but no Referendum Bill, anyone expect one soon. You need the Bill before you get the Act so there is a wee clue there isn’t there. There will be an Act saying the Scottish Government can hold referendums but there is no Bill legislating to hold one on independence in the programme, we are being strung along here. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Look I get that we are in the midst of a global pandemic, I get that Brexit has not been resolved but any referendum on independence is going to take time, a lot of time, so the work to get ready for it needs to be done now. The so called draft bill needs to be before parliament now and if passed when the SNP have a yes majority after next Mays elections we are ready to hit the ground running. I have a friend who is a Liberal Democrat who believes 2023 would be the correct time to hold one, and while he is certainly more politically astute than myself I just don’t see one happening even then the way things are going. When thinking about it last night I really thought that we could be looking at 2025 at best at this rate and the pace the SNP are moving at.
The longer this drags on and we don’t even see a smidgeon of planning to get one my trust and motivation in the SNP wains. I am not convinced by Nicola Sturgeon as anyone who has read this blog knows, I have zero time for the likes of Smith and Wishart who are happy to sit and wait for voters in England to vote for their own indepdence before they will do a damn thing about our own independence. Wings Over Scotland has come in for a lot of stick over the last 12 months and in particular the last 3 months but is Stuart Campbell so wrong in his criticism of the Scottish Government.
It really is starting to feel like groundhog day now.
grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com 
I feel your pain!
Lulu
I really don’t expect to see any real movement towards a date with everything that is going on but I do expect to see some movement, they have years to put together the referendum bill and didn’t they fluffed around with Brexit and now Smith just lets the mask slip and it is depressing to the extent that I feel they are now just taking the micky.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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With regard to Wings, have you read his blog of 14th Oct? It’s a very clear strategy for moving forward; in my opiniion one of the best he’s posted recently.
Peeliewallie
Yeah I did and he is not wrong but it won’t happen. I just can’t see the SNP moving any time soon depressingly, some are too comfortable and others too afraid. I get there will no date anytime soon, we all know that, but they need to be moving on this as the fight to hold one itself will take a couple of years at least. I really feel that we are being strung along and the plan is to drag this out to 2025 or after so they can hope for good polls and they can claim once in a generation, it is all just getting beyond a joke now for me and I am losing faith in the SNP on this issue. I will vote for them next year but it will be the last vote they ever get from me if there is no referendum within the next parliament at the very least.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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He’s not wrong. It’ll be a good few years until independence is achieved, even if a referendum is held in late 2021. Breakup negotiations could take a year or two, could involve further transitions and so forth.
If current trends continue, we’re going to see the first 60% Yes poll around Christmas. The gradualists will head into next year’s elections, wholly vindicated and very sure of winning IndyRef2.
Mind you, that trend can’t continue indefinitely. It’ll hit a new ceiling and then polls will start bubbling up and down around the actual figure. Unless and until we see more polls showing more movement, that 58% result has to be considered an outlier – we’re probably sitting at 55% yes now.
Alan
I take on board what you are saying but my thinking is the length of time it will take to even get a referendum and I am not convinced that the SNP are actually doing that much preparation for one and if not and they get caught out by events or by voters it is over. They need to be acting now, there is a danger that Brexit will become the new norm for many who will fall for the next project fear then if no mechanism is in place to hold a referendum they won’t be able to. I am starting to think that we are being played I really do, it is not about impatience but actually about the practicalities because you can bet that the unionists have already taken legal advice, they will have various government departments working on this now, the media will be ready to go and the SNP will have little or no plans in place, I hope not but from what I hear from people I know who are members they are concerned.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
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I read his tweet slightly differently in that he attempts to put the reason behind the Yes lead as the work being done in Westminster; a point, I assume, to justify a settling in instead of a settling up. Also quite a self centered thing to say. Hardly anyone pays attention to Westminster these days.
Alan
Your right he was saying that but he is deluded, the current lead in the polls for me is in spite of a lot of the SNP work than because of. I don’t doubt that many look at NS leadership and that has helped but to be honest I think more and more people have just had enough of Westminster now and would just prefer Scotland to go it alone, it is more about the corruption of Johnson and the Tories than anything else. Smith I have never liked anyway but I found his comments depressing and for me he is just part of the woke problem than the solution, I would never vote for him if that was the choice given me.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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Bruce I am not as diplomatic as you , I think we have been well and truly duped , NS and her coterie of woke gradualists are quite happy to rip the pish and keep their lifestyle, we have had numerous opportunities to move forward and zippo, nada, nothing, just more give us your votes for ANOTHER mandate, as you have said she is talking of a DRAFT BILL no dates or information
The answer lies in the TOU Joanna Cherry has already STATED publicly in the HOC that the Imperial Markets Bill (not a typo) when given assent breaches the Treaty and Articles Of Union as well as article 50 of the EU agreement re the GFA, We also have Article 60 of the Vienna Convention of Treaties
https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_1_1969.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0PcMBGLoZGLFRjzmO25K3gnxg5bbj3Y5kAZl4XH4q6XD_ueJCkBgQNmXY
If Sturgeon and her fellow lawyers in the party cannot see this opportunity then it begs the question do they REALLY want independence
Twathater
I sympathise I really do. As you know I have had reservations about NS leading the next yes campaign for a long time, she is a manager for me and doesn’t inspire, well not me anyway. We should be further down the road now and not just with polls, we need to be ready to go and we are years away from a referendum in my opinion due to the inaction of the SNP leadership and I agree I suspect there are some whom independence is not their priority and not just the woke club. What has Wishart achieved at Westminster in all of those years, Blackford is just there for comic effect. The only ones who really stand out are MacNeil, Cherry and Black. It is a sorry state of affairs and next year is the last mandate the SNP get from me.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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Cheer up there could have been a Plandemic. WHO knew, eh, who knew?
https://mobile.twitter.com/EatlovePray11/status/1316778274983419904
Kangaroo
I don’ think anyone expects things to happen soon due to the pandemic and we understand that but we are years away from a referendum now and I really can’t see one before 2025 with all that will be involved in achieving one. We are being taken advantage of, the party are not being honest in my opinion and the woke crowd and leadership for me are starting to look like they are playing games.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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Bruce, why do you think we’re running out of time? Why do you think it matters so much to be in a hurry? The first time we did this as a country, it took twenty-five years to obtain England’s recognition of our independence. The second time, thirty-six.
The Tories may carry out a power grab. So what? They will not go as far as closing Holyrood down. I know it’s your favourite pet fantasy disaster, but it ain’t going to happen. What we do have is a massive, massive demographic shift taking place which is slowly killing the Union day by day.
Time is not on Westminster’s side. They’ve lost Scotland and they know it.
Alan
They may not close Holyrood down as they don’t need to with the internal market bill. My main concern is it will take years to get the next Indy referendum and by then we will be out of the EU for a while and people get used to things over time. We could find ourselves in a situation where they are too afraid to lose what little they will have at that point and with a Project Fear 2 sowing even more doubt. It’s not going to get more favorable than the next 12 months and a failure to move then might be grabbing defeat from victory.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
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I don’t see how Westminster-based Tories win Scotland back. Firstly, they’d have to water Brexit down to almost nothing. Second, they’d have to deliver actual Home Rule – and with it give up virtually all of the benefits having Scotland in the UK gives them. They are not doing this; they are stripping powers away. We’re not going to forget this.
It won’t take more than two years to get IndyRef2. Even if it does, so what? The date to hold it is the Scottish Parliament’s decision and the SNP could well choose a long campaign again, holding IndyRef in 2023 or 24 instead of late 2021. You’re suggesting that Scotland will somehow just overlook Cameron’s austerity, the Vow, Brexit, Covid and all that stuff.
Fat chance of that. Folk are still pissed off about Thatcher, even if some of us weren’t born until after she’d gone!
What is it about the next 12 months that are so favourable? Why do they impose a permanent all-time cap on independence support?
Alan
Westminster really don’t have to do anything, they know Scotland has moved on from traditional unionist parties so all they have to keep saying is no to a referendum for as long as they can, which could be years. They can force Scotland to the point of having the only option but to declare UDI knowing the rest of the world probably won’t accept that, do you think the EU or the USA will ride to our rescue, I don’t. I wish I had your optimism I really do because the Tories will strip Scotland bare and there won’t be anything left that some will want to fight for by way of independence, but again I really hope I’m wrong but I’ve seen too many false dawns over the years.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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Then let them. Let them try saying no after the SNP has won a Holyrood majority next May! The more they strip Scotland, the angrier it makes us.
See where that gets them as far as Scotland is concerned. It isn’t going to win them any voters. We WILL hold that fucking referendum and we will force them to accept the result, presuming that Yes wins.
You’re right that a big sister won’t ride in and rescue us. It is entirely up to us to somehow obtain England’s recognition of Scottish independence. Historically, this has always been expensive – the first Treaty demanded £100,000(in 1328!). If you truly believe that “Westminster will always say no,” you have already given up.
So what if they get their 30 pieces of silver? We’ve got a big renewable energy surplus going forwards. We still have all the natural assets, land and wealth they can’t take because it’s physically part of the country. They’re not dismantling wind farms or grouse moors and carting them down to Manchester or wherever.
Alan
I admire your determination and no I haven’t given up because I believe Westminster will say no, not at all. I think we need to working on the plan for when they do say no and now, I am not a member of the party but I hear some things from members and I believe Joanna Cherry today is calling for things to egt moving and planning to take place so I may not be too far off the mark in some areas.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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