So the First Minister has announced plans to legislate for indy2 within 6 months and will set out the question to be asked etc. The National of course are jumping for joy while the Daily Mail is crying into it’s whatever. There have been predictable comments from the yoons sphere with the branch manager of the Tories Douglas Ross part time MP saying that “the First Minister just doesn’t get it. We need to take Scotland forward and recover from this crisis together, not go back to the divisions of the past”. Scottish Labours only Scottish MP shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray said the “reckless” announcement showed that Ms Sturgeon’s “top priority is to divide the people of Scotland”. He said: “Re-opening the constitutional debate will do nothing to help our NHS recover from the pandemic, or help the children who have lost months of education, or help grow our economy. Public services should be the priority, not a divisive second independence referendum.” The Scottish Liberal Democrats, yeah still a thing, sent wee leader Willie Rennie out to comment that “independence got the loudest applause of the afternoon” from the SNP benches at Holyrood, saying “that tells you all about their priorities”. Social media has the usual suspects going back and forth from both sides, nothing new there and while there is ignorance on both sides why do I never hear the yoons tell me why the union benefits Scotland in any detail, they just talk Scotland down all the time like this guy who commented on social media “Where is the money going to come from. No more Barnett Formula from the day of independence which is currently £13 billion. Money for the furlough who will provide that. Transport. I would think the English would be more than happy to see us leave as they will not suffer financially. Use the pound as the currency and have interest levels set in London. Join the EU and wait in line. The biggest market is England. Whose currency?. Progressive immigration. Defence, Taxation levels. If the time taken for Brexit you are looking at five plus years to untangle 300 years”. How anyone could think like that is beyond me to be honest but it is what we are up against, Jockholme Syndrome in all its glory.
The problem I have with all of this is to ask myself why am I so underwhelmed by it all? Is it because we have been here before, is it because the First Minister said she would not hold a referendum without a Section 30 type agreement as 2014, is it because I don’t think the English Government will ever agree to one anyway and there doesn’t appear to be any clarity on where we go from there. Wee Ginger Dug wrote an interesting article yesterday about why now is not the time to start indy2 given that the YES community rely on face to face and boots on the ground to engage and campaign while the unionists have money and the media on their side, let alone the state. He makes a lot of fair points which I understand while maybe being difficult to accept as being stuck in this union offers me little hope for my children’s futures. Wings Over Scotland Stuart Campbell feels this is all a bit of bluster and that we have heard it all before and will hear it all again, I totally get why he feels that way as a part of me does too, again another opinion and an interesting read. Some on social media think this announcement is about maintaining the SNP vote leading up to next years elections and guaranteeing the SNP another five years in government then nothing will happen, again I understand why people fear that I really do. We have been on referendum alert for at least 5 years and it is very tiring I would imagine for many.
I suppose this announcement was a few things, an attempt to boost the yes community and to let them know that the SNP are still serious about independence and to put pressure on Boris Johnson, a man who doesn’t seem to cope with pressure all that well, that this issue is not going away and I suppose force him into saying that there is no way that Scotland is getting permission from the English Government for another vote, again this will just reinforce our standing in the UK and help the yes cause you would expect. I would have also expected that a draft bill be ready to go a long time ago to be honest and many are asking when does loyalty to the SNP become the stupidity of the old Scottish Labour Party, either way I am sadly underwhelmed and under enthused but maybe that is just how we all feel right now with the year we are having.
grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com 
Couldn’t have summed it up better GSM!
One the one hand there is WGD’s point about not being able to put boots on the ground during lock-down, so an effective referendum campaign needs to wait, whereas an election might be OK … on the other we have the Wingers’ fear of being outflanked by WM taking over Scotland post-Brexit up to and even including Ulster-style direct rule?
Where does the truth lie ???
Marconatrix
Time will tell, I guess Covid took the pressure off the SNP up to a point and gives the unionists time to work out what they will do. I think they will consider direct rule if they think the Scots will just accept it meekly as we have done historically so we will need to be ready to fight as the next one is the last one, certainly in my lifetime, and it is going to be as dirty and underhanded like no one has ever seen and we need to be ready for that. Either way though we are all playing the waiting game hence why I am so underwhelmed by it all right now and it will probably take an actual referendum date to get me really enthusiastic going forward, I do wish they would all stop playing games though and the SNP just act as if they are independent now and not just with Covid policy.
Thanks for commenting and please stay safe. Bruce
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I still believe the SNP are serious about independence. Ardent Yes supporters either can’t or don’t want to accept that the SNP are – quite correctly – still focused on winning former No voters over and those need to be catered to in a different manner.
And, oddly enough, a few don’t seem to accept the primacy of the Scottish Parliament as the expressed will of the Scottish population which they seek to make official. Whenever I see someone talk about the SNP being given more than one mandate(in the past week, I have seen as many as 5 or 8 cited), I roll my eyes. There is only one mandate applicable to the SP and that’s the 2016 one – which only won a minority government.
Westminster elections don’t count anymore, period. Neither do the 2007 or 2011 Holyrood elections – they have been superseded by 2016. Squeezing that final EU election or the various council elections into the “pile of mandates” just make them look even dafter.
In 2021, that mandate will be replaced. Don’t get carried away with the interpretation of the “boy who cried wolf” fable which concludes that the boy is a wee shite who should be replaced. The other interpretation is that it was the villagers’ lack of patience which led to disaster.
Alan
I am just not convinced this time is any different to the previous announcements on this issue to be honest and I really was underwhelmed by it yesterday. I appreciate there are many opinions within the yes community, those who feel the current strategy is working and those who want to see faster movement, I am in the later as you know. My concern is that we have to wait and see again and you can only march the movement up the hill so many times before it gets sick of it and seeks an alternative strategy and strategist, who knows who is correct right now but either way while the announcement I feel was made to keep the spirits up I am not so sure that it has to be honest, people are tired of waiting. They see the injustice all around them, they see an increasingly right wing English Government that many feel will just turn Holyrood into a council and there won’t be a great deal that we will be able to do about that if we are not willing to get down and dirty which I am not so sure many Scots are. It really is, in my opinion, time for action not plans that should have been in place years ago. As you know from reading this blog I am not convinced that Nicola is the best person to lead the campaign for independence as she is a manager, a competent one for sure but a manager all the same. I hope I am so wrong I really do but I fear the worst and hope for the best but I do remain unconvinced that we are actually moving in the right direction now regardless of the polls.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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I came on to comment re the feeling of being underwhelmed , then I read Alan’s comment about how the SNP still believe in independence and are serious about it , then he DOES the usual SNP apologist approach and BLAMES the stupid voters for the SNP and NS incompetence and capitulation . I have news for you Alan not all people who desire indy for Scotland are NS apologists or sycophants and can see through her manipulations and blackmail , and the SNP don’t OWN indy they are merely the vehicle (currently a very inept and compromised vehicle) to get us there
But Alan you and others are free to worship at the NS altar just don’t expect others to be consumed by the lies and FALSE hopes and promises
Robert
I think that Alan makes a fair argument based on his views moving forward, but there are other opinions like yours and mines, time will tell who is right and on the money and who isn’t. I was just really underwhelmed by it all yesterday and remain so today. The next referendum will be the last one for a long long time either way and I understand that many in the SNP / YES community want to see a sustained high 50% in favour, I understand that feeling even though I don’t agree with it as it is a dangerous one to take given the nature of the current English Government that we have to suffer. The bill for another referendum should have been ready a long time ago, as should an alternative question as I don’t think I would go with the last one. I would prefer something different like dissolve the union but we know that the unionists will argue for months about that alone. Either way I will admit I am impatient to get moving, I understand Alan may have a different view but I feel the longer we wait the more difficult it becomes to win at the same time as the SNP is going through a lot of change and putting in place potential candidates that some might find very difficult to vote for. I wish I had a crystal ball and could say how it will all work out but all I can do is hope for the best. I will keep blogging my opinion though and contacting elected members etc to express my opinion as that is very important also, the SNP do need to understand that we can go down a different road if they don’t act the way the wider yes community want them to even if that means taking a reluctant step back.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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Like many, I am only behind the SNP until independence is delivered. What do you want us to do?
Replace Sturgeon? Fine, but with who or what? List-only parties aren’t going to form the senior partner in any coalition. Every anti-Sturgeon person who leaves the SNP only strengthens her hold of the party.
I get it. Sturgeon and her allies do things I don’t like either(the blocking of Cherry chafes very much), but I swallow it because I believe the Scottish population can fix these mistakes after independence.
What do you want us to do?
Alan
I would have a non political figure lead the next campaign and probably have the SNP and YES community separate to be honest. It’s up to SNP members to decide their leader and rightfully so, I will also vote SNP in the constituency but not the list as there is no point in giving them both votes in my area as they have little hope of gaining extra list seats, certainly not more than one. I will also change my vote once we are independent and new parties form or the unionist ones change. I do consider myself a social liberal and would like to see a proper liberal party or an SDP type party of old but we are not there yet. It is a wait and see time and if the SNP get tit wrong then people can and will use their vote as it should be.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
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Bruce,
That’s a good point and I agree about the Yes campaign being led by someone else – but WHO? In that scenario, Sturgeon is still the First Minister of Scotland and a major player in IndyRef2.
As for list votes giving the SNP no extra seats, that is bullshit. If their list vote tips over 50% and if the Tory/Lab vote dip a bit more, the SNP can indeed win the one or two seats in each region that all the new list parties are chasing.
Alan
In the north east the SNP I believe have only ever taken one additional list seat but there is potential for a pro yes list party to take more than that so I will shift my green vote maybe to the ISP. As far as who should maybe lead a yes campaign for the yes community I would have a Lesley Riddoch type person.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
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Underwhelmed or not, the question is what else would you want the FM to do at this point, about 8 months away from the election?
Alan
I would expect the bill to be ready to go before parliament now to be honest as they have had years to be working on it, I would have expected that the question over the competence of the Scottish Government to hold a referendum would have been in place now, I would have expected the Alex Salmond enquiry to have been held every day for two or three weeks so it was over and done with and the steam taken out of it rather than two hours a week over the next 8 months. I would have expected to see a bit more detail on what it could cost to set up various departments in an independent Scotland and what they would look like, I would have expected to be a lot further down the road given that Brexit was in 2016 and we are over 4 years down the road and we are no further forward, in fact they are still fighting about it and trying to save England from itself irrespective of the shambles Westminster have made of it. As I have bogged over the last little while and commented we have been strung along for far too long in my opinion.
Thanks for commenting as always. Bruce
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It’s an inquiry into the Scottish Government. They can’t exactly dictate the terms of it themselves, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.
Brexit was never expected to happen. The SNP intended to govern Scotland from 2016-2021 without an IndyRef2 and it’s the plan they stuck to..I’ve asked this question in 2018 and I’ll ask it again: At any point during that 2016-2020 stretch, in hindsight, do you think there was a moment Yes was absolutely-motherfuckingly-guaranteed a referendum victory? I really don’t and I’m not convinced that the final push is just a matter of adding a few percentage points on top of what we had from 2014. That approach stinks of fucking complacency.
They are not still “trying to save England from itself”. I haven’t heard “stop Brexit” since the 2019 election, where the English decisively backed bouncy Boris and his Brexshittery. Opposing the UK’s “internal market” isn’t about stopping Brexit, it’s about escaping England’s control freakery.
Alan
The timing and duration of the enquiry I am led to believe is set by the Chair and Presiding Officer, many MSPs have raised concerns about the length of time it is taking when compared to other more complicated enquiries that have been held previously.
Just recently Blackford was calling for Brexit to be delayed by two years, I just don’t see the point at all. It really is time to get it over and done with and with all the mistakes Westminster will make in the negotiations even if they are not serious about trying. I don’t think yes will ever be guaranteed a win, a win can only come with a set referendum process in place and a major push by the yes community, even if yes were 60% in the polls I would not be that confident giving this countries record of bottling it at the last minute.
Saving England from it’self I appreciate is not exactly true but that was the impression that the strategy came across as when in reality we should have been letting them get on with it while making it clear it was not what the majority of Scots voted for and showing how much Scotland would lose out in funding etc to forward the independence cause. Just my opinon.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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you have wanted indy ref every year since 2015 (and also predicted “it’s happening the YES movement have left the SNP, you say all the time, only rabid people will ever leave the SNP) when we would have lost every single time. I on the other hand have argued 2022-2024 to make sure we will win.
DC
No I don’t believe I haven’t every year but I may have, the memory is not so good in my old age. The yes community as a whole has never been in the SNP and they are starting to make their voice heard which is a good thing like delaying GRA and the Hate Bill, good thing if you ask me and yes you are probably correct as I don’t see another referendum before 2024 either.
Thanks for commenting. Bruce
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