Well Nicola Sturgeon proved me wrong today and I couldn’t be happier.
Credit where credit is due, I really did believe that we would be looking at a longer delay and more clarity before the SNP would give an indication of where Indy2 sat in their planning. Nicola said,
independence was Scotland’s “route to avoiding the worst of the damage brexit will do” and said another vote should be held “in the lifetime” of the current Scottish parliament, which is due to end in 2021. The last referendum took place in 2014 and delivered a vote against independence. The SNP leader said she would bring forward legislation this year to pave the way for another referendum. (The Independent)
Nicola went on to say that:
“To rush into an immediate decision before a Brexit path has been determined would not allow for an informed choice to be made. However, if we are to safeguard Scotland’s interests, we cannot wait indefinitely. “That is why I consider that a choice between Brexit and a future for Scotland as an independent European nation should be offered in the lifetime of this parliament. “If Scotland is taken out of the EU, the option of a referendum on independence within that time scale must be open to us. That would be our route to avoiding the worst of the damage Brexit will do.”
I would have liked to have heard more on what is going to happen if Westminster, as we all expect, refuse to agree to another referendum which they 100% will. They know that the next referendum will be a close call when the starting point is at least 45% for yes and not the 20% in 2012 when the last one was called. So what happens then, do we go to the Courts? Do we hold a consultative referendum? Do the SNP fight another election seeking a mandate? Do we call UDI? These are all questions that I hope will be answered in due course and soon.
There is still the chance that the UK will agree a deal with the EU that makes indy2 difficult to hold or even ends it happening any time soon and would be held is better than should be held but should be held is better than nothing. However, today I definitely and unashamedly say sorry in part to Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP that I got it wrong, I really thought there would be no clarity today other than another delay in the independence journey. As I have stated above, there are still many questions needing answered, more clarity is required, but at least we have a direction of travel and I will certainly do what I can as we move forward.
Here are some reactions to the statement, more clarity is the answer but positive overall.
grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com 
To be honest , I’m angry . To go cap in hand and have to ask for a section 30 , is degrading . Are we the only country in the world that needs to ask another country for its permission to hold a referendum in our own self determination . When the UK had its Brexit referendum , did they ask ? No they didn’t , and they would never have thought to ask , why ……because a union where you have to ask permission isn’t a union . And yes I see the strategy in pointing that out to NO voters , but they don’t really give a crap about things like that . We don’t need to ask permission , they have breached the treaty countless times , its time we had a back bone and just ended the union ,afterall we never got asked to join , so why do we need to asked to leave the damn thing ?
I’ve also change my mind on being a member of the EU , after the huge datatbase announcement yesterday plus the copyright laws coming in the next few years , I really don’t like where the EU is going , 1984 looks a distinct possibility .
Ricky
I totally get where you are coming from but it is a slow but steady step in the right direction. I didn’t expect anything to be honest and fully expect Westminster to refuse when the legislation is passed but that is the stage where I have been asking for for a long time. We probably should have been at that point years ago but at least it will force the SNP to be less managers and move forward fast or face a real backlash. I suppose it is still kicking it down the road a bit but it is something and gives me hope. My partial apology is on the basis that I really didn’t think they would do anything but I also expect answers to the questions I have posed. If and when Westminster refuses I expect to see at the very least a court case and if not that a clear manifesto that says the next election is a referendum on independence, an SNP majority of seats at Westminster and/or a pro yes majority at Holyrood is a declaration for independence, end of. Failure to do that then my vote is at serious risk and I will live in a hope a YES party is formed to move us forward. I’m trying to be positive but if I;m let down then this blog will go for it big time as far as the SNP is concerned.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
No, we’re not the only country. Consider Catalonia, for one. Or Kurd, Iraq. Possibly even California, USA. There are plenty of secession movements which cannot progress because they are trying to remove a piece of a larger country which jealously guards its sovereignty.
To Bruce, the clear answers you want can’t be given out, in part because the UK government would at the same time be informed of those plans. Right now, they think Sturgeon is trapped into asking for a s30 order over and over and probably will try for a s30 court case. They’ll be completely blindsided if the SNP springs a consultative referendum onto us. Something like: “This is a nonbinding referendum, like 2016. In the eventuality that the UK carries out Brexit, do you prefer: A) Independence in Europe or, B) Brexit UK?”
One problem I can see is, they’ve done the fast one on us before – putting brakes on Scottish legislation and then passing laws in the Lords to retroactively illegalise that legislation. Which is why I suspect we’re waiting for the UK parliament’s summer recess to start…
Alan
You are spot on to not trust the unionists, none of us can afford to do that. I think the UK will have already looked at all the options that are available to the Scottish Government like Court, advisory referendum etc so I don’t think it matters when the SNP publish or answer what they are going to do. I would just prefer to get all the rejection out of the way so that we the voters know exactly where we stand and so do the SNP. It might even come down to making sure there is a pro independence majority at Hollyrood in 2021 and then that Parliament votes to withdraw from the Acts of Union, do it with the full knowledge of the EU and the UN and lets see where that takes us. It wouldn’t be declaring UDI, it would be debated at length in parliament and voted on by all of the countries elected representatives, if passed then they immediately instruct the UK of our intention to leave and give them a date. Have the UN and EU involved at that stage, and lets face it they will no friends of the English Parliament after Brexit and ignoring a UN World Court decision, it might just work.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
Disapointing from NS. More caution, steady as we go, don’t know what’s round the corner, need to engage etc etc. We know all that. I would much rather she’d said – if Brexit goes ahead we will do EVERYTHING we need to do to hold Indyref2. We voted to stay in, so that’s what we want…otherwise Scotland will suffer.
It would have the twin barrels of the already Indy population, and those who know that Brexit will be a disaster for Scotland.
A Yes party would be an interesting thing , that way we could really see the backing independence truly had . The FM’s speech to me felt like she doesn’t want to take the risk of a referendum , she plays it way to safe . To have an election based on indy would work , and if the Tories / Labour in England have an election to sort this mess of Brexit , it could be a open goal for us .
Brian
It was more than I was expecting to be honest. The pressure is on now, if the SNP don’t deliver they are toast I think, or Nicola will be. I wanted more clarity and at least we will get the refusal from Westminster and once that’s in I expect far more clarity. Hopefully Westminster will say no right away and then the ball is really in the SNP court and they will need to act. I would be looking for clear action like the next election being a referendum on independence or a plan to hold one anyway no matter what the yoons say. I understand the disappointment many feel and I’m giving the SNP one more chance, if they blow it then I’ll vote for someone else or hopefully the yes movement will form its own party.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
Ricky
Any Brexit deal kills indy for a long time, I’ve believed that from the start and the SNP will pay a price by not acting sooner. Also if the SNP don’t act as they have said then I’ll take my vote elsewhere and would support a yes party even if it means a few steps back. Time will tell. The SNP are managers now so I didn’t expect much. I would prefer an Alex Salmond leading from the front but it is what it is , time will tell but at least it was a step forward today, better than nothing which was I thought was coming.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce