Comment : Sometimes people get annoyed at me

Get annoyed at me for questioning both the strategy and commitment of some in the SNP on the future direction for another independence referendum. Well below is part of the reason.

I’ve been noting on this blog for some time now that I was not convinced that the SNP want to hold indy2 anytime soon,and that their recent tactics would indicate delaying. Pete Wishart all but confirms this tonight.

There is no reason to delay calling and fighting for another vote. Yes we might lose, and if we did lose given our current circumstances under the worst Tory Government ever, well we would never win a referendum anyway and don’t deserve independence.

However. We also saw in the last one that the vote can shift once the campaign starts and we don’t start on 24%, or there abouts, like the last time, we start on 45%. It’s time for the SNP to show they are the party of independence and lead, stop playing Westminster’s Brexit game and lead from the front, if you can’t then it’s time for the members to put a leadership in place who will.

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8 comments

  1. Robert nugent

    WE CANNOT GO OFF HALF COCKED
    WE DID BEGORE AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENED
    A GOOD TACTICAL GENERAL ALWAYS PANS AHEAD
    FAILURE TO DO SO MEANS. “YOU LOSE”

    • grumpyscottishman

      Robert
      I don’t think it’s the case of that at all. They also say that a plan never survives first contact with the enemy. The longer we wait the longer it will take. Westminster are going to refuse indy2 no matter what the polls say and the SNP can’t sit back and say well we’ll wait for another mandate, the time and patience of the yes side will wane and waiting as Pete Wishart suggests until the polls are friendly is folly at best and stupidity at worst.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

  2. Alan

    They are and were right to be cautious. The fundamental point is that popular support for Yes hasn’t risen in a significant enough manner to justify independence on its own merits. That leaves us with the “changed circumstances” due to Brexit.

    Almost as importantly, the Brexit mess can still be averted at this point. Nothing has been decided until at least next week’s vote. And I still can’t understand why it seems so urgently important to go for an IndyRef 2 ASAP to some supporters. It’s an indisputable reality that whatever the UK parliament finally chooses to do with Brexit has HUGE, utterly pivotal consequences for any IndyRef2 campaign.

    If all the Brexit shite DOES get passed to a People’s Vote and ultimately reversed, then I can’t see how anyone could justify IndyRef2 in the next three years. Legitimacy matters almost as much as popular support and we would have neither.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Alan
      I don’t think people are saying now, that won’t happen but there has to be a clear plan laid out wether the SNP like it or not. The polls are never going to be good enough for the likes of Pete Wishart. If they get over 50% in even two polls I would be surprised, the vote as we know shifts during a campaign. We also know that Westminster is going to refuse, this refusal will be concrete after Brexit no matter what we want as Britain will rely on oil and gas for its balance of payments, we know that is the case no matter what they say. We cannot sit on our hands and wait for Brexit and hope it’s bad enough and people move because Westminster won’t. The pressure needs to be getting ramped up now and any delay will hurt the yes movement in my opinion. I know members of the SNP and they are worried about the leadership now and like myself not convinced they want to move anytime soon. Apathy of the membership will kill Indy stone dead, the time is running out and if they don’t move soon then the ship will have sailed and we will have missed the chance.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

  3. g

    Brexit is the key to when we hold it. The Westminster parliaments/farce needs to finish and the UK needs to know finally it is leaving no ifs no buts and the good no voting punters (who are in denial generally partly because the UK hasn’t left yet) in Scotland are then forced into a position. If the SNP don’t come out fiercely for Scottish independence then its time for a rebellion in the party. Its already simmering, the leadership know the score they are waiting until the last minute but they will go for it.

    • grumpyscottishman

      G

      Allowing the mandate to run out and wait for another one as Nicola Sturgeon suggests for me is a mistake, waiting on the polls to move as Pete Wishart wants is folly. Westminster will refuse indy2 no matter how loudly we should and how bad Brexit is. I actually think that a hard Brexit makes independence less likely not more as the U.K. will depend on things like oil and gas, at least in the short term. Waiting too long also risks splitting the membership and the yes side and none of that would be good. For me we need a clear way ahead now, not get out there and persuade and I’ll get back to you, that’s a sure fire way to lose and not even get to Indy 2 in the first place.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

      • Alan

        That’s not what’s happening. I don’t believe for one moment that Sturgeon and the SNP leadership are “allowing the mandate to run out”. The problem is, they CANNOT stop it running out if sanity storms Westminster and a way is found out of Brexit. The mandate is as dead as a dodo if that happens.

        If we do get a “no deal” exit, IndyRef 2 will definitely be held before the end of 2019.
        If May’s deal passes Parliament(somehow!), IndyRef2 *could* be held before the end of 2020.
        If a People’s Vote happens, the Indy question is on ice pending its outcome and shelved until at least after 2021 if Remain wins.

        I think of Pete Wishart’s post-2021 IndyRef as our version of a backstop. It’s a plan which works should Brexit not happen and a plan which would work if Brexit happens. And I think it really does work both ways – unless you believe Ruth Davidson and Richard Leonard can rebuild support for the union!

        We definitely have the IndyRef2 option if Brexit goes ahead. But it *must* go ahead to make IndyRef2 happen before 2021.

        • Anonymous

          Alan

          I think this is one of those agree to disagree moments but I 100% hope you are correct and I am wrong.

          I really believe that Westminster will not agree to a new referendum before the next general election in 2022 unless something happens and even if we have one sooner both the Tories and Labour have said they will not agree with any new vote, that is problem number 1. The next Holyrood election is 2021 and on refusal from Westminster Nicola Sturgeon has said the SNP will seek to strengthen the mandate so this mandate runs out with no guarantee that the SNP will command a majority in Holyrood even in a coalition. If it’s close then I would not put it past the unionists to have a 3 party one, we know they have no shame.

          Hard Brexit goes two ways. Either the Scottish electorate get to the point where they have had enough and demand a referendum in numbers over 50%, in that case Westminster will still probably refuse meaning more delay given the SNP stance on taking a hard line. My view currently is that enough Scottish voters will be afraid to lose, as that is what they will told, what little they have and will have no appetite for a new referendum but I hope I am wrong, but I have little faith in many of our fellow Scots to stand up and fight for what is right.

          I really believe the request for indy 2 has to be made now, once refused then the harder line starts and all other options have to be on the table. Nicola Sturgeon has given the unionists a huge bone by saying that she will stick to the process of 2014 but the circumstances are different now. The SNP should be putting maximum pressure on this government now given the problems it currently has, we need to be adding to them not making life easier by playing a soft hand and sticking on 13 and hoping for the best.

          Thanks for commenting.
          Bruce

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