Are the stakes getting higher for an Indy2 Vote?

Justine Greening, Tory MP, has thrown her weight behind another EU referendum which is being reported as an attack on Theresa May.

Now I don’t really care if the Tories are fighting like ferrets in a sack, they can tear themselves apart for all I care, but the issue of another EU referendum is starting to pick up pace a little since the the EU White Paper came out.

Justine Greening is proposing that voters be allowed to choose from three options: May’s final deal, a no-deal Brexit or staying in the EU in a future vote. Allegedly the Prime Minister has said

In April 44% of people felt that there should be a vote on any Brexit deal. This remains roughly the same as a similar poll in January. Interestingly 51% think there should not be a second vote on the EU but if there were 55% would vote to remain a member.

Now we know that May and the brexiters are against, we know that Labour don’t know what they want and we know the Liberal Democrat’s support another referendum for the results they don’t like and not for the ones they do like.

Mike Russell, SNP Constitutional Relations Minister, has called for the Government to give voters a say on the final outcome of the talks between Britain and the European Union.

I am pretty much of the view that a referendum on any deal with the EU will make a referendum on Scottish independence less likely. My reason for believing this is that I believe any vote on the deal will be against any brexit deal, and while that could result in a hard Brexit, I think May would just try to keep a transitional period on going with the UK remaining with the status quo for an indefinite period, or as Donald Tusk said in January hearts in the EU are still open for the UK to remain a member

but those of you who are more on the ball with the EU issue could help me out here as to if that is possible.

Now many think that Scotland voting differently from England for a second time makes independence more likely but for me that is a high risk strategy. I suspect many people as a result of another EU vote could vote to remain in the EU which kills indy2 for a long time, or if we wait too long to call indy2 fall for a project fear 2, or what they are told by the unionists is the less insecure option, and that could be remaining a part of the U.K.

Are the stakes now getting higher for indy2 and can we risk that scenario?

I think that we have to allow Brexit to play out, then we go for Indy2 as anything other than that feels like a smudge, plays into the unionists hands, and we have done that enough. As Pete Bell wrote in this months IScot, we need to stop being nice and I would add playing the game by their rules.

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12 comments

  1. Helena Brown

    This morning the reality of Brexit hit home. My dog has eye issues for which he has eye drops. We go through around two bottles or so a month. The last bottle was £6.11, this morning £8.20. These are made in Belgium, they are not just made for dogs, like much these days there is a crossover. I get ours from the Vet, with a prescription they cost from the chemist as of the last time I did this,£2.22. The prescription is around £15.
    This is not the problem, what happens when we crash out. This hopeless useless bunch may be stockpiling………. but not for animals.
    I wonder how another Brexit referendum would play out with the facts out in the open.
    I expect all rights we have enjoined for over forty plus years to vanish like snow of a dyke. All this for a blue passport which will p probably be beyond most people’s reach.
    We never should have been nice in the first place. The British Establishment is a rotten crock of shit

    • grumpyscottishman

      Helena
      I’m unsure if the UK will the leave the EU or not to be honest, but I do think that people will milk it and that includes vets who are a bit renowned these days for ripping people off. A guy at work thought he was getting ripped off from his vet for his dogs, complained to the body that keeps an eye on them and on investigation it was agreed he was. I do think prices will go up because it has all been handled very badly, I have never had an issue with free movement or anything like that and would happily accept EFTA but if there is another vote I will change mine to remain, the UK is run by assholes who should not be anywhere near running this country. The reality is though that any change of heart to remain in the EU will set independence back for a few years I suspect.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

  2. Ricky

    Until Brexit hits the No voters hard , nothing will change . The more I look at things and talk to people , they just don’t grasp the true situation , they have no idea what is about to happen . The UK government is stock piling processed food , buying warehouse space like its going out of fashion , customs and border control has increased its employment by thousands . If it smells like a hard exit , sounds like a hard exit , looks like a hard exit , then you know that Brexit is going to to be so hard a depression will hit , and unless we get the hell out this year , we are completely buggered . Prices are set to increase by so much , it will cost lives and jobs , but here we sit waiting on half of Scotland to wake up and grow a pair .

    • grumpyscottishman

      Ricky
      I have always thought that May wanted a hard Brexit, she just can’t be the one to bring it about if she wants to stay PM. It is a disaster though and we are run by monkeys and assholes. I agree once it hits people are in for a big shock and if it’s a hard Brexit then it may well tip the balance towards YES but I am starting to think there might be another ref on membership given the shambles that things have become.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

  3. Alan

    This has always been the case. If Brexit is cancelled, the IndyRef2 mandate goes out of the window. Depending on how heavily the UK government ‘capitulates’ to the EU, a deal may push IndyRef2 out of the window. Staying in the SM&CU certainly will. This is why, whilst the idiots running the UK are in disarray, I did not want IndyRef to give them a pivot to get out of Brexit with.

    I think there will be a snap election in the next six months, but no second EU referendum. What that means, I’m not prepared to predict yet… Tory majority? Tory minority? Labour majority? Labour minority? Will Labour turn against Brexit? What if they need SNP votes?

    I realise that “no deal” is devastating, but the responsibility for that lies entirely with Westminster. If they allow it to happen, we will pin it on them and use that to win IndyRef2. No, Westminster will not try to shut down the Scottish Parliament immediately after Brexit. They could try, but then the SP will definitely refuse, the SG will be mandated to start acting unilaterally.

    All we can do now is prepare for “no deal”. Tinned food in bulk. Consult with your GP about preparing a year’s supply of medicines(if required). Plant a few more vegetables wherever we can. Remember to share. Brace for impact.

    If it turns out there is no impact, great. Give all that stuff to the food banks.

    • Alan

      Heck, if they do try to shut down the SP/SG? That’s a trigger point for a completely different sort of referendum. The 1997 referendum created them – arguably, one is required to abolish it.

      And if devo is off the table, the only two options would be independence or submitting to an unitary UK.

      • grumpyscottishman

        Alan
        I think if they tried to shut down the Scottish Government the Act of Union would be repealed by Holyrood very quickly and they would have the backing of the EU etc. I don’t think the Tories would ever try that but they will weaken it as much as possible as Spain has done with Catalonia.

        Will there be a GE? Yes, I think you’re correct, there could be a snap one as the Brexit deal dies or the EU reject any sort of deal. I do also think it could be dragged out though to avoid a GE by May as long as she can, she will do anything to remain in power and Corbyn scares the Tories and many of the voters in England. I wouldn’t write off another EU referendum as the no deal brexit scenario comes clearer and people start to really brick it, could be a snap election with parties saying there will be another referendum to remain a member but it won’t be on the same terms as now. I think the EU would love to see the UK remain but there will be no rebate and no opt outs. I actually think in that situation we should look to join the Euro etc as I have no issue with the currency, I think the UK being in it would actually make it stronger and it needs to be as America start to go protectionist and it could be useful to Scottish independence in the long run.

        I haven’t started to stock pile and probably won’t to be honest, most of the things we use are gotten here anyway but I do think prices will rise as imports become more expensive and companies see the opportunity to rip us off with brexit being the excuse. Overall it’s a total shambles when it doesn’t have to be, have we ever been governed at the UK level by a more incompetent bunch of ass holes ever, people must look at our government and shake their heads, Mugabe ran Zimbabwe better than the Tories manage here.

        If there is an election all we can hope for is that the SNP do a better job than they did the last time, esp around what another Tory Government means, our own project fear and they have to get the vote out. The last election all the Tories did was take votes from Labour, it was the failure of the SNP to make sure the vote got out that lost them a few seats.

        Thanks for commenting.
        Bruce

  4. trispw

    It seems to me that if we crash out, independence will be pretty much in the bag.

    Surely no one will want to live in a totally broke country with shortages of food, medicine and many other things when there is the possibility of a Scandinavian life in an independent Scotland in the EU.

    But I find it really hard to believe that either the UK or the EU would allow things to get to that, despite the “threats” to so do. Maybe, I’m wrong. Maybe they are just mad enough to go for that.

    In a way, because what I want above all else in independence, I guess I wouldn’t mind that if it brought me my heart’s desire.

    Pretty crap for all my mates in England though.

    If we end up staying in the UK and we crash out, I’ll be looking to move and to that end I’m brushing up my Icelandic. Ég vil búa í Reykjavík!!

    • grumpyscottishman

      Tris
      I can’t see anything other than a hard brexit as I don’t think the EU can come up with anything the nutters on the right can accept. I wouldn’t write off another EU ref first, and if England votes leave and Scotland votes remain, then I can’t see how Scotland can stay in a UK like that, surely it would time to just leave. It is a shambles though and gets worse every day doesn’t it, if we have an indy vote and Scotland stays in the UK then like you I think I would have to go, maybe to Ghana as staying here just won’t be something I will want to do, there will be no more Scotland just little northern England and that is def how I will see it. I won’t want to stay in a country, the only country in the history of the world to willingly give it all away, I couldn’t handle the shame.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

  5. Pingback: Is Nicola sitting on the fence? | Grumpy Scottish Man

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