So I have been watching Theresa Mays statement to Parliament this afternoon and to be honest she looks like toast to me now. David Davis and Boris Johnson are gone, rumours of backbenchers sending letters to the chair of the 1922 committee and a Tory Party more split than ever.
The cabinet agreed at that weekend to accept a common rulebook with the EU, a joint jurisdiction on law, a facilitated customs arrangement (whatever that means), and a mobility framework that ends free movement but favours EU nationals. Now of course I don’t think many people will believe the EU will accept these proposals so we have to be looking at a hard Brexit.
Now I said from the start that I thought May wanted a no deal Brexit but needed the EU to be seen to be the bad guys as the only way she could survive. That appears to be more likely now as far as any deal goes. Things do go in Mays favour though to a small degree, Labour are a joke and in as large a mess as the Tories.
Some are saying this afternoon that May won’t survive the day:
That won’t happen as May is ruthless in staying PM but surely she won’t survive until the next election in 2021. Now I voted leave and have since been clear that I regret that vote on many fronts, I don’t think there will be another EU Referendum, not if the Tories want to stay in power but I can’t see how May stays as PM all that much longer.
The Government are in a mess, Labour are in a mess, the DUP will not accept any deal that makes Northern Ireland different, and the Liberal Democrat’s want to say yes to the referendums they like and no to the ones they don’t. When May talks about sovereignty of the U.K. she means
None of this is anything less than shambolic, can May survive this? Can Scotland afford to stay? What England wants Scotland gets and what May has achieved is the worst of all worlds, May surely now is toast.
Things appear to be moving fast. Interesting times.