The long grass or the long game?

So, First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon has said that SNP supporters should focus on winning people over to Yes rather than the timing of Indyref2.

Is this putting the next vote into the long grass, or are the SNP playing the long game while trying to appease their members and supporters of independence.

We know that Pete Wishart MP is in no rush to hold another vote, Keith Brown, the new deputy leader of the SNP, wants people to be ready when the time comes, and there are different voices within the wider yes movement who vary in their views on when. Robin McAlpine of Common Space notes that

“There’s no more dangerous move than marching your troops back down the hill again, because they are fizzing with adrenalin and have nowhere to put it.”

Libby Brooks in the Guardian last month noted that,

I believe there is a risk in delaying too long, people get used to things, others will walk away frustrated and dejected. Brexit will be a disaster if the experts are correct, but until it happens no one knows really, but I do go with the disaster view. Many with yes leaning sympathies are EU sceptic for a number of reasons but if Trump gets his way on tariff free trade then the game changes again. While tariff free trade is unlikely, money talks so who knows if a not so bad Brexit weakens the yes vote.

Overall I don’t think the SNP believe they can win a referendum any time soon, not based on anything other than discussion with some members I know and my gut feeling, but there lies the paradox. If yes supporting non SNP members feel betrayed the party could lose votes, losing votes could lose seats, and that diminishes the political opportunity to even hold the vote.

I don’t envy Nicola Sturgeon at all and I don’t have any answers. This year for Indy 2 is just not going to happen, probably 2019 is not in the SNP plans. 2020 then has to be the date because any later I feel means it just might not happen at all anytime in the near future as events might just take over

Advertisements

12 comments

  1. Bob Nugent

    Hearing all points I Am sure The SNP leadership and MPs
    ARE MORE IN TUNE WITH THE TIMING OF NEXT INDY REF VOTE
    ALL OF US MEMBERS NEED TO GATHER AS MUCH INFO ,FACTS, FIGURES
    SEEN PLENTY OF GREAT POSTER AN LEAFLET IDEA
    THATVCAN BE DELIVERED TO DOORS AND AT EVERY MARCH
    WATCHING.
    WE DO NOT GET MUCH COVERAGE IN THE DELI RAGS
    SO WE NEED TO USE POSTERS FLYERS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
    TO TEACH AND TELL ALL DOUBTERS.
    WE CANNOT AFFORD TO LET UNIONISTS GET UPPERHAND THIS TIME.
    WE NEED TO WATCH POSTAL VOTERS THEY WERE LIED AND CONNED
    LAST TIME

    • Anonymous

      Bob
      I am not a member of the party and I certainly don’t envy Nicola Sturgeon in the decision she has to make that’s for sure. The reason for the blog was chatting to some friends over the weekend and reading some things online. I agree that we all need to be educate as best we can and have some facts but I am not so sure facts will win this debate this time, it will need to be a combination of things to be honest but mostly getting people to appraise the union and to think about what it has actually done for Scotland in recent times and what does the future hold for our involvement but I do think leaving it really late will make it more difficult.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

  2. Alan

    This is why I’ve been telling people to expect 2020, maybe 2019. Everyone watches the Westminster meltdown, not knowing what to expect when negotiating time finally runs out(October-ish) and the EU says, “Look, no more pissing around. You can have Deal A, Deal B, Deal C, you can call it off or you can crash out.”

    And we don’t know who will be PM on 29 March 2019. We don’t even know if Theresa May is actually willing to crash out rather than cancelling, whatever she claims.

    The bottom line is – if the UK cancels Brexit, we have to wait until after 2021 to seek a mandate without attached conditions. The UK is able to cancel Brexit up until it happens. Therefore, Brexit has to happen.

    • Anonymous

      Alan
      I’m thinking 2020 now as the last possible date. If they have to go for yet another mandate in 2021 then there are no guarantees that they will get it as, even thought they done really well overall, governments run out of steam as far as the voters are concerned. I dread that day to be fair, Labour or the Tories with the Lib Dems in a coalition would be a disaster and would definitely end the independence debate for a long time. But your timeline makes a lot of sense, although I think May will survive as there isn’t am appetite for the other so called leadership contenders.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

      • Alan

        “Labour or the Tories with the Lib Dems in a coalition would be a disaster and would definitely end the independence debate for a long time.”

        I don’t see how both of those things can be true. I suspect a disastrous Unionist coalition would make the final argument for independence. Remember, a referendum is not the only democratic route to independence – a SNP majority with a manifesto committment to deliver independence if they also secured a majority of the popular vote on the list would be acceptable. Turn the Scottish elections into de facto referenda on independence.

        • Bruce Hosie

          Alan
          I should have said vote instead of debate sorry. I don’t think Westminster would bow to any pressure unless there is an independence majority at both Holyrood and Westminster and even then we know it will be difficult. The SNP have always said that they would never consider UDI and I don’t trust the courts to back a consultative referendum. I hope it doesn’t come to any of that because that leaves social unrest as the only option and no one wants that. We need to make sure that people vote SNP as the only real political route to an Indy vote.

          Thanks for commenting.
          Bruce

          • Alan

            Please note that the electoral route I described is NOT an udi. It is simply another means of securing a mandate for the scottish gov to negotiate independence.

            UDI is only ever on the table if Westminster refuses to negotiate ONCE such a mandate has been secured, either via referendum or election.

            • Bruce

              Alan
              I know that. I was putting UDI out there as an option but not one that the SNP would ever consider. Alex Salmond said that in 2014 and has always took that line, a mistake as it needs to be an option as far as I am concerned or what do Westminster have to lose when they just keep refusing to accept any mandate.

              Thanks for commenting.
              Bruce

  3. George

    I don’t believe there is a majority appetite in Scotland for independence (no matter how much I may wish it). In the end no matter how slim a No vote was in a referendum, as long as it existed no UK government would buy into the proposition.
    More serious is the remote chance that Rees Mogg may get the PM job, should that happen then kiss goodbye to Holyrood. Maybe it’s time to seriously consider negotiated Home Rule? England can stop paying for the leeching Scots and they can get their parliament back, let their racism and xenophobia work in Scotland’s favour. Baby steps, sofly sofly catchee monkey.

    • Bruce

      George
      I agree that is the case at the moment and will therefore be apart of the SNPs caution, and I totally get that I really do. According to the unionists we already have a form of Home Rule, of course we don’t as power devolved is power retained we know that. Federalism was an option that Salmond wanted in 2014 and Westminster would not consider it, even the so called federalists allegedly rejected the idea. I believe that Scotland will one day be independent and just hope that it’s not on the day that England votes votes for it’s own independence once they have stripped Scotland bare and there is nothing left to take.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

  4. bjsalba

    What Nicola originally said was “When the terms of Brexit are known.”.

    May and her Brexiteers intend to take this to the wire in the belief that the EU27 will capitulate and give them what they want. As someone who has been keeping tabs on EU27 ramping up preparations for a hard Brexit I would suggest their belief is a very much mistaken one.

    i would wish that the EU27 would drop the guillotine blade and end all this political gamesmanship.but politically they cannot as the UK will run with the “they are throwing us out/punishing us” meme, so we will have to be patient and wait.

    Only when it is crystal clear to the general public that the Leave vision of the British Empire 2.0 is a load of nonsense will it be time.

    • Bruce

      bjsalba
      She said she would make a decision when the details are known and I hope that is the case. I don’t envy her as I said. I’m not up on where the negotiations with the EU are as we know that we don’t get told the truth and even when I watch Euro News and it is covered the EU are just as bad. I think May is trying to get as soft an option as she can or she hopes the EU will throw the UK out and she can claim to be the victim. The EU I think need the UK more than they are letting on, I am not saying that they won’t cut the UK adrift without a deal but I suspect they would love the UK to revisit the decision and then negotiate a weaker deal for the UK to stay. Obviously that would never wash with England and the Tories so my belief remains a hard brexit is on the way, it’s just a matter of time but I would not be surprised if it is years down the line.

      Thanks for commenting.
      Bruce

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.