I read this article in the online Spectator and thought it made a lot of sense. It is an old article written before the General Election but what do others think?
“to deny Britain a free-trade agreement would be an extraordinary act of self-harm, for all sides”. That comment makes a lot of sense to me. I understand that there are a lot of hard feelings and hurt on all sides. There is also a lot of stupid bluster from all sides but Fredrik Erixon is correct in what he says, there is a lot to lose on both sides. Will the EU and the UK want to really commit economic hari Kari, even though we have the most inept Government in living memory, surely someone will have a little common sense. I appreciate it won’t come from Labour or the Tories, but maybe the SNP, the Greens, and the even the Liberals now led by the Tory Vince Cable can find a way for some light to shine and some sanity to prevail.
Well worth a read of the article.
grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com 
Small problem being that the EU does not want to discuss a trade deal until after the terms of the exit are agreed, plus those of the transition deal. This may be due to it being illegal for currently-EU-members to negotiate trade deals on their own behalf(with a few, very limited exceptions). The reality is, negotiations for that UK-EU free trade deal won’t start until 2019 and probably won’t finish until 2024 at the earliest, assuming all goes well.
The essential thing is to secure a transitional deal in the next 14 months or so.
Alan
From what I can see I think there are things being said in public and things behind closed doors. I don’t doubt the exit cost will be a big one but it will be resolved as too many have too much to lose. I was also listening to the radio the other day, talk radio, and they had a Professor on from one of the Universities who was saying that the USA, Canada and Australia have tariff free trade with the EU and that is how he expects the deal to go esp if as expected those countries have a tariff free deal with the UK. I’m no expert but he was saying there is pressure from within the EU to make a deal happen as a hard brexit, as well as harming the UK, will send the EU into recession and that the UK was better served to cope with a recession in the short term than the EU but I am no expert.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
Unless the UK takes a more reasonable attitude in the “divorce” negotiations, I don’t see them actually getting to Trade Negotiations at all.
From what I have read the impression that the EU is busy preparing for the possibility that the UK will walk out of the talks. European manufacturers have been told to look to their supply chains. The banks and financial services companies are already setting up shop in Europe.
The UK and the EU are currently negotiating disagregation of quotas – which the few UK papers which did report it tried to paint as being Trade Talks – a capitulation on the part of the EU. That is not true. They are needed for trading under WTO. It also has to be in place for a free trade agreement to be negotiated – if they get that far.
The other problem is that the EU27 have discovered how much more they can accomplish without the UK. I get the impression that they cannot wait to be shot of the UK.
bjsalba
It’s all a bit of a mess and I am certainly no expert. The article made perfect sense to me and I know from relatives and friends in the USA that it is being covered over there and the view appears to be favouring the UK. That doesn’t surprise me as the EU is a competitor of the USA globally, Trump wants a UK deal asap and seemingly Canada and Australia have said the same thing but I haven’t seen that. A friend in America has said his view is that the USA will push for the UK to adopt NAFTA rules and that will open up the whole North American market but I don’t know if that is either possible or a good thing. All a bit of a mess really.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
I seriously doubt if any trade deal with the U.S. will favour the U.K. The U.K. is currently in a surplus situation with regard to U.S. trade. The U.S. will doubtless be keen to send us (offload?) lots of its feedlot beef, chlorine-washed chicken and much other rubbish and they won’t be doing us any favours when it comes to prices. It’ll be a seller’s market and what the hell have we got to sell that the Americans, or anyone else, really wants? Oh, aye, I know there’s the Scotch whisky and the Melton Mowbray pork pies, etc. No doubt we’ll get “kilties” and Beefeaters to hand deliver them đŸ™‚
Andimac
The trade stuff has so many different stories about I never know what to believe. Interesting though that BMW have announced today that their electric mini will be built in the UK for the EU market, what do they know that we don’t . Your spot on about America though I suspect, why would America do us any favours unless we have something they want lime military bases back on UK soil maybe.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
YOU VOTED LEAVE YOU DO NOT WANT ANY OF THIS END OF
Anon
No, actually I hope there is a deal for all our sakes.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce
personally believe a leave vote was one in favour of true conservatism and no deals like farage etc
Anon
You are a true Liberal Democrat.
Thanks for commenting.
Bruce