Here we are at the start of 2017 and it may prove to be an interesting year politically and potentially very very important for the YES movement with Brexit and the Council elections in May, but also very important for the Labour Party in Scotland. I am going to refrain from calling them British Labour in Scotland, or just BLiS anymore, as it has been done and dusted and most people either know or don’t care about the nature of the parties operations.
Scottish Labour currently control 11 councils either in a majority or minority administration, and 7 in coalition with other parties and independents. The SNP control 2 councils with a majority, 1 in minority and 5 in coalition. The others are a mix of independent and various make ups involving the Tories and Lib Dems.
In the last set of council elections in 2012 the SNP finished on 425 seats, Scottish Labour 394 seats, the Conservative and Yoon Party 115 seats and the Scottish Liberal Democrats 71 seats with 200 independent seats.
The last YouGov poll on the 1st December 2016 had voting intention figures for Holyrood as CON 25%, LAB 15%, LDEM 6%, SNP 48% for the constituency vote; CON 24%, LAB 14%, LDEM 6%, SNP 39%, GRN 11% for the regional vote. I couldn’t find any for the council elections, probably still too early, however it is not looking good for Scottish Labour at all when even their own polling, 30th December 2016, puts them on 15%, showing how accurate the yougov poll may turn out to be come May.
Scottish Labour are looking at a wipe out of council control, losing Glasgow City Council in the process. Now as far as I am concerned it doesn’t bother me, while Scotland badly needs decent opposition, Labour had a 100 years to make things better and they only went on to enrich themselves at our expense so I would not care if they went under as a party altogether to be honest, they deserve everything they get. I also believe that a straight fight between the SNP and the Tory Yoon Party is the surest way to independence as England continues to slip into Tory right-wing madness a little more everyday.
Dugdale is pretty much finished, it’s just a matter of time and a fantastic New Year would be Anus Sarwar getting the job, yes him of Holyrood not being a democratic place just before he was elected to Holyrood in an actual election. I believe Scottish Labour will come behind the Tory Yoons in the Council Election’s while Labour can’t win in England as the press won’t allow it, and the voters in the main don’t like Corbyn, those who might replace him are Red Tories, and why vote for the fake ones when you can have the really mental ones anyway. I also suspect we might see a General Election in 2017, esp if or when the Yoons get into real difficulty over Brexit and the EU tells them to go do one.
Is there any hope for the Labour Party in Scotland, not without a clear out and a message, neither of which appear to be on the horizon. You never know in Scottish Politics but surely the best chance for Labour in Scotland is to support independence, again not going to happen anytime soon. The Scottish Liberal Democrats will continue to decline under the ultra unionist Willie Rennie and the Tories will gain here and there no doubt and this will be portrayed as a sea change in Scotland and a mass revival.
It will be an interesting 2017 politically, we might see the virtual death of the Labour Party in Scotland and maybe even a new PM if May isn’t yoon enough with the EU. I don’t see Indy2 until 2019 /20 to be honest and that is probably fine with me as we should know by then what Brexit means, which will be either another referendum to stay in or WTO trade regulations which some believe might not be a bad thing.
Looking forward to a year of ranting.