So four months on from the EU Referendum where are we? Well no one really knows or are willing to say. The Government don’t seem to know other than want their cake and eat it, the papers still appear to be fighting the referendum and arguing about the size of children’s teeth, the Scottish Government are consulting on a future referendum for Scottish Independence and if Question Time is anything to go by, many in England are still afraid of foreign people or want parliament to ignore the referendum result.
French President Francois Hollande has intimated that Britain will be punished for leaving the EU, not exactly in those words once you dig a little, but the implication is still the same. Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, wants a united front against the UK and it’s access to the single market and Malta have made clear that the four freedoms – free movement of goods, capital, services, and people – could not be decoupled, Muscat said. “that cannot be negotiated … these principles are the basis for everything the EU does.”
Basically it’s a mess. I have covered my leave reasons in previous blogs so won’t revisit them here in any detail. My views haven’t changed, in some ways they are more entrenched the more I hear what is coming out of the EU, but what do I think is going to happen.
I think that nothing much publicly is going to happen until Article 50 is put in motion, there are of course going to be discussions behind the scenes, anyone who thinks they are not already happening is deluded. I actually find myself agreeing with Conrad Black that once the dust settles a pretty much neutral deal will probably be found, especially once major EU elections are out of the way next year.
Punishing the UK serves no one’s purpose to be honest, yes the EU will want to be seen to be doing something but Germany is rolling back on it;s immigration policies and many within Germany are questioning the free movement of people, like wise in Holland , Spain and in France.
While the free movement of people was not a huge issue for myself it is for many EU countries as we see above in the satisfaction levels on the EU, and it is growing. The EU in my opinion is on a knife edge, as I argued before, without fundamental change it will collapse, so my view is we may see the EU restrict the free movement of people, something along the lines of only those with a job offer or for education will be allowed to move and then they will come back to the UK before we actually leave to vote on a treaty change that will nullify the referendum result.
I might just be thinking a lot of crap, I don’t pretend to be an expert, this blog is purely my feelings and opinions on what I read and the research I have time to do, and is in no way pretending to be any more than that. What will it mean for Scotland is too soon to say. I do believe that we need to act in many ways as if we are independent now and having our own Brexit Minister is fine with me but we should not rush into another referendum, we still need the dust to settle.