I was looking at What Scotland Thinks poll of polls today (see above) and wondered why the polls really haven’t shifted at all in favour of YES. Currently we are looking at 52% No and 48% Yes, very close I accept that, and not requiring a large swing, but should we be expecting more?
On the back of Brexit, the most right-wing Conservative Westminster Government in a long time, the implosion of Labour, ever-increasing demands for social protections and the ever-increasing gap between rich and poor, we are just not seeing any great change in the polls.
Many commentators feel that the perceived collapse in the economic arguments have had an impact on the case for independence. Even with the fall in Oil prices Scotland’s GDP is roughly 1% behind that of the UK as a whole, not the end of the world at all. It is fair to say that economics plays a huge part in how many people will decide their vote but have we underestimated the feelings that people have for the union.
I’m not talking about the yoons, there is no changing their minds I don’t think, but what is it with the others. I know people who have little but would still vote no and I don’t think it can be only down to fear.
I am at a loss as to why the polls have not really moved from the 2014 figure. I would not be expecting a huge lead but I am surprised the difference is still 4%, any ideas?