2017 is TOO SOON for Indy2

There has been some talk about the Scottish Government holding another referendum in 2017 on the net today. Maybe the question should be, should we hold another one in 2017 on the back of the EU Referendum, and can we win it. I don’t want to get into any arguments about Westminster giving permission; it would only be advisory etc, arguments for a different day.

I blogged back in May let’s not rush into another referendum, so please excuse me for raising this issue again but my opinion hasn’t changed, even on the back of the EU result. We cannot and must not rush into an Indy2 on the back of recent developments and with the same arguments about the economy and the pound for example as we had the last time.

Many people also voted leave in the EU Referendum, myself included, for a wide variety of different reasons, and as many as 34% of SNP voters voted leave. That and the need to really define our arguments need to be taken on board before we rush into anything.

Looking at the polls as highlighted by James at ScotGoesPop http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/majority-for-independence-in-new-scot.html who had Yes on 50.8% and No on 49.2% as recently as the 30th July. Clearly that is not enough to be sure of victory and a perfect example of having to wait and see how the dust settles. I appreciate we are all impatient to get away from this rotten Union as quickly as possible, but the next time we have to win, so we do need to be patient.

It has been reported that roughly 45% of Scots view themselves as equally Scottish and British, more British than Scottish or British not Scottish. Now that might not reflect their politics but how people feel does impact on any future vote. I know a few people who will never vote YES and I know some who could be persuaded, but the journey is going to take patience on our part and any rush into another referendum could backfire badly.

So can I ask that we take a deep breath, lets hone our arguments, continue to challenge the status quo, challenge the bias media and in some ways sit back and watch the Tories continue to dig their own grave and Labour continue to implode on their way to self-destruction possibly, the Liberals right now don’t matter as a political party of influence. I would also ask that the SNP and the Greens be more inclusive of the YES movement and take on board what the boots on the ground are feeding back the next time because I know people who tried to tell people that the EU and Economy arguments were not working but people didn’t listen or didn’t hear.

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9 comments

  1. Jim Morris

    Your variety of reasons for voting Leave may or may not include the mindless impoverisation of millions of fellow Scots citizens. Regardless, the tax avoiding 0.1% (1 in a 1000) of the population thanks you very much.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Jim

      The results of Brexit are not known at this point and only time will tell, will it result in the impoverisation of millions of Scots, no I don’t believe it will but again time will tell. My reasons for my vote I blogged about after much research before making up my mind, https://grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com/2016/04/15/eu-funding-how-much-do-we-pay-and-get-back/ https://grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/its-not-as-simple-as-ignorance-and-racism/ https://grumpyscottishman.wordpress.com/2016/06/03/is-the-eu-failing/

      The simple reality is the EU is failing and failing badly, without structural change, which it shows no sign of being willing to do, it will continue to fail. It is also more elitist than Westminster in many ways so why would I want to vote for something that is just as bad as Westminster, it doesn’t make sense. But we all vote on how we believe and what we believe to be best.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

    • I Clark

      I don’t accept your impoverisation claim. But even if I did, to assert that Bruce acted ‘mindlessly’ is ridiculous as well as inappropriately insulting. If you had not read what he had previously written, at best you could perhaps argue (wrongly as it happens) is that he acted out of ignorance. Lack of knowledge is not the same as lack of calculation of consequences (which is what I assume you mean by ‘mindlessly’). And if he did calculate that mass poverty would occur (and he would have to be a ‘monster’ to think this was acceptable), then he was not acting mindlessly. QED. Finally your comment about ‘the tax avoiding 0.1%’ possibly reveals your ignorance of the extent to which this group will continue to successfully act the way they do whether in or out of the EU.

      But it wasn’t really about logic or evidence was it? It was about lashing out to gain a small amount of satisfaction. I can partly understand your frustration (having being on the wrong side of the Independence vote), but if you have vent your anger then try to make sure it is properly justified and targeted.

        • grumpyscottishman

          Iain

          The EU Referendum was such a tough one to vote in, possibly the hardest I have ever encountered. Westminster, Holyrood and local Council elections are easy, the independence referendum was easy but the EU very difficult. It all came down to how I felt and what I learned, I don’t know if it was the correct decision but one I am confortable with to be honest. I do understand how people are very frustrated by the result though, I felt the same in 2014 and the reason I really think we cannot rush into indy2 on the back of brexit result and the Tory Government that we didn’t vote for.

          Thanks for commenting.

          Bruce

  2. lanark

    The next vote is going to be centred on the EU. The SNP must get an assurance fro the EU that Scotland will be allowed in. Hopefully they will get one when Article 50 is triggered. This then removes a huge part of Project Fear’s argument.

    However, I am convinced that Westminster will not attach conditions to another vote. Whether this is on the percentage or how many years there has to be before another referendum is held (if ever), if No wins again.

    Also moves are afoot in Dumfries and Galloway by some councillors to take the area out of Scotland if the region votes No in he event of a successful Yes vote. It might seem like a daft notion now, but this is another example of Unionist “Ulsterisation”. Why not partition an independent Scotland and watch us descend into infighting? That would teach us!

    Such tactics delayed Devolution for twenty years. I expect much the same. The SNP will fight against moves like this but Westminster will try and make it so bad that if the SNP reject it,. They can hen be accused of running scared.

    I feel 2017 is too soon also. Maybe I’m being pessimistic.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Lanark

      I definitely think that 2017 is too soon. There are still important issues to be resolved like currency and I agree with you that there has to be as close to a cast iron guarantee from the EU for those that feel passionate about it from that point of view. I don’t know enough about bits of the country seceeding to remain in rUK, I don’t think it would wash as you would have places like Newcastle wanting to be a part of Scotland if the polls that have looked at this are correct ,but your right, Westminster will play every silly game they can and use every fear they can to sow discontent, bring it on but we need to be prepared and ready, right now we are not and we would lose. I think Westminster would be confident of winning another referendum in the near future, longer term I am not so sure they will feel as confident. We still have a ways to go.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

  3. bjsalba

    I don’t know about too soon for a new Indyref, but as far as I am concerned as long as we have a media which is dominated by foreign billionaires and foreign corporations, we do not have a decent chance at a real democracy.

    • Anonymous

      bjsalba

      I agree, the media are a huge problem and enough people still get their information from the likes of the Daily Mail, Express etc in Scotland. I don’t understand why anyone can buy these papers, and I think most are bought by older people, but it will be a problem in indy 2 as social media just doesn’t reach enough of the people we may have to convince. They certainly operate very politically and less like a free press, a proper press. Why we need to take our time.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

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