A week after the Holyrood Elections I have been having a think about when is the right time for another referendum?
I don’t accept the once in a generation argument favored by unionists and Yoons. I don’t care if Alex Salmond said this during the campaign or not, I just don’t think it is any politicians gift to give and the unionists from Cameron/Davidson to Rennie/Dugdale can say all they want about denying another one, they won’t dare if voters decide they want another.
We have seen the arguments about respecting the vote in 2014, we have seen the economic arguments stating we would have had a deficit of 9.4% on independence day, resulting in a big black hole of 10 Billion Pounds. The Tories, sorry, the Ruth Davidson Party believe that they have been given a clear mandate in coming second last week with 22% of the vote and that she is the defender of the union. Willie Rennie and Kezia Dugdale think the same but does anyone really care about what they think anymore! I know I don’t have that much interest in their opinions on this issue as we will never change their minds.
Channel 4 News stated that support for independence continues to remain around the 47% mark and 53% for remaining in the union. It may be a little tighter than that now but probably not much. The continuing difficulties with the economy are highlighted as the main reason to vote no, Better Together, pooling and sharing resources and all that guff. There are of course those that will never vote YES no matter what happens to the country or to them personally, I have debates with some on social media, and like the extreme YES voters, you won’t change their minds either way as reason does not factor into their thinking, or logic for that matter.
The SNP manifesto says the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is “clear and sustained evidence” of majority support for independence, or if there is a “significant and material” change in circumstances, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will. There are some calling for another referendum sooner rather than later, Jim Sillars is asking voters to vote to leave the EU in next months EU Referendum in the belief that it will trigger another referendum very quickly. A recent Ipsos MORI poll for STV reported that, regardless of circumstances, 58% would support another referendum in the next five years and nearly two-thirds would support another referendum in the next decade.
I believe that another referendum on Scottish Independence is inevitable, most if not all countries that started down the path of an independence journey got their in the end, just look at the end of the British Empire for proof of that. The argument appears to be less about if and more about when.
I am not in a huge rush to have Indy2, not because I think we would lose, but because we need to continue to take stock. There were mistakes made during the campaign in my opinion, especially currency and the unelected head of state issue. I don’t think that the UK leaving the EU necessarily constitutes one unless there is an overwhelming majority screaming for it.
I also think that the United Kingdom is on it’s last legs, I really believe that. Our voting system for UK elections with first past the post is a con and returns far too many minority governments, the Scottish system does this too sometimes but is at least slightly more representative, however I don’t think people will put up with that for much longer. The current non debate about potential election fraud by the Conservatives continues to highlight the unfairness in the system, as does the constant ignoring of the 56 SNP MPs at Westminster in a Parliament that demonstrates that it neither listens or is interested in what Scotland has to say.
When you take into account the above and add the continued gap between the rich and poor, austerity that allows the wealthy to get wealthier on the backs of those with the least (Thatcher’s trickle up economy), the fantasy lifestyles of the Windsor’s being stuck down our throats every time wee George farts, and the Tories continued drift towards more extreme right win intolerance it starts to look like the UK is very much winning the YES argument for us.
I would like us to take our time but I would also like to see an official YES organization on the go again, YES was a broad Church with people across all political divides and none. From all cultures and races that make up modern Scotland, and from all economic groups. The arguments for independence are bigger than the SNP and the media must not be allowed to frame the debate in this way and neither should the SNP be allowed to assume that it is only their argument when it belongs to all of us who feel passionate about it.
If we are to change hearts and minds then lets not rush into another referendum, lets remember that it is greater than politics or money in so many ways. It is about the kind of democracy we want, it’s about where we want power to lay, where we want decisions made and by whom. Our argument is strong, our argument is just and in my opinion our argument is in the best interests of Scotland so lets please take our time, lets not argue amongst ourselves, lets not lose sight of the end game.