My prediction for what it’s worth

So here we are, at the end of the one of the worst election campaigns that I can remember. We have had wall to wall media coverage of the worst kind, we have learned little from the media, they have challenged little, and generally been pretty poor while encouraging anti-Scottish feeling at every turn. I think we can now understand what it felt like to be Irish in Britain in the 1970’s.

Locally in my own constituency it has been pretty poor. Conservative, Labour and Liberal activists appear to be dressed in Royal Mail uniforms as the only literature I have received has been delivered by activists wearing Royal Mail uniforms. Chris Law, the SNP Candidate, has been very active and I have had a few leaflets and letters etc. I would say he was beating the rest 4-1 and the information was all hand delivered by SNP activists not dressed in Royal Mail uniforms. I think Chris has a good chance of winning the seat from Jim McGovern (Labour) who is both standing down and was pretty useless anyway.

Nationally, my prediction is based on nothing scientific just my gut feelings, and what I have seen, heard and read in this campaign. My feelings are I suspect that David Cameron will scrape through the doors of number 10 with the help of the Liberals, DUP and whoever UKip might get elected. I suspect that the Liberals will get around 20 seats, DUP 8 and UKip 1 or 2. The Conservative I really think will just make it. The main reason I suspect that they will is that the Labour campaign and Ed Miliband have been woeful.

Ed Miliband has reacted to every taunt and set up that the Conservatives and the media have thrown at him. While his meeting voters across England in q and a’s has been far better than Cameron’s refusing to answer questions, his tablet of commitments and his anti-Scottish bandwagon rhetoric will have punished him. It also doesn’t help that he is supported by the hapless Balls, Alexander and Murphy, some of the worst and most loathsome politicians you could ever meet. Ed Miliband just does not cut it, better than Cameron, no contest there, but he comes across as weak and out of touch. Clegg with his I am not apologising and tactical voting will pay a price but not as much as people suspect.

Scotland is where the real interest is. The polls show an SNP landslide of maybe every seat. That is not going to happen, first past the post is a fixed system of election and tactical voting will ensure it is not a total wipe out for the other parties. I think that out of the 59 seats the SNP will get around 30 (up from 6), Labour possibly 22 (down from 40), Liberal possibly 6 (down from 11) and Conservatives 1(stay the same). As I’ve said this is based on nothing more than what I have noted above.

For the record I hope the SNP do take every seat and then sit back and watch the fun as the Conservatives, if I’m wrong, fight it out with Labour and maybe even just try to go it on a minority Government. The disgusting Fixed Term Parliament Act means that David Cameron can sit in Number 10 until such time as Parliament passes a vote of no confidence, and who would bet on Westminster vested interests in the three Tory Parties ever doing that, not sure they have the guts.

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8 comments

  1. Paul

    Hi Bruce.

    I reckon… SNP will gain closer to 40 seats than 30, I think there will be a pretty serious backlash.

    I also think the greens while not gaining any seats will pinch a lot of votes from the Lib Dems, not sure of the extent though.

    I’d like to see Mundell get the boot, plus people like Douglas & Danny Alexander.

    Most of all, I would quite like the WM hegemony to get a huge kick in the balls, it needs it very badly. I don’t believe it’ll ever serve the people needs while its so busy serving its own (both north and south of the border) but this election I think (after last years referendum) is the second step on the way to the union’s demise.

    Good luck to us all.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Paul

      I hope so. For me it’s not about balance of power it’s about being heard for once. If no additional responsibilities come to holyrood that’s fine we can shout loud and make it difficult for whichever Government to run rough shot over us. It will be a very interesting night.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

  2. hektorsmum

    I am not predicting Bruce, will take what we can get and hope that the Labour Party can resist fiddling the Postal Votes ( I am sure they are squeaky clean).
    Never thought I would see the day that the SNP could boast having 110,000 members, I can remember when it was one man and the dug working away and the dug was helping put the leaflets oot.
    What ever been keeping the faith on an Independent Scotland since I was 18 so that will make it fifty years this August.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Hektorsmum

      I think the SNP will do well, not as well as the polls predict but better than ever before. However no doubt what happens anything less than 59 seats for the SNP will be seen as a victory for Labour because the dirty unwashed YES voters just won’t go back in their box. Bring it on I say.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

      • hektorsmum

        Well Bruce we did better than many of us ever thought, you were right to be cautious. 56 seats, god 56 seats so good had to say it twice. The ext poll had it on 58 and if we had got shot of Alistair Carmichael and that swine in Edinburgh South we would have. Anyway we need to keep some examples of what we need to keep out of power. So we have three Unionist, still got Mundell as well. Some things never change..

  3. grumpyscottishman

    Hektorsmum

    Better than anyone could have predicted and I must admit I was very surprised. The sad thing, although I wasn’t surprised, was Cameron getting back in. I never thought he could do it himself but thought he would still be there in number 10 and that’s not good at all. A lot of poor people will suffer, a lot more jobs will go. Mines I have been informed by a union official is now on the line.

    Let’s just hope the SNP can take advantage of this good fortune.

    Thanks for commenting.

    Bruce

    • grumpyscottishman

      Sod

      I certainly was, who would have guessed the overall price that Labour and the Liberals would pay for working with Tories in Better Together and in Government.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

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