UK Polling have stated over the weekend that Labour are ahead in the polls of voting intentions for the May 2015 General Election, Opinium/Observer – CON 29%(nc), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3), GRN 5% (tabs) YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%.
Now I am no expert in the polls, I get my info from http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ where James is the man to go to. I know the northern branch of the BBC prefer John Curtice but I prefer ScotGoesPop, James was pretty much spot on during the referendum and if I remember correctly did sadly call a no vote before the big day, although I hoped above hope that he was wrong.
But anyway, I have been thinking about this lead, this small lead and how it might play the closer we get to May 2015. Assuming that Labour can maintain a lead up to the last month can they win? I don’t believe they can, I am not saying that based on the numbers but based on the Miliband factor. There will be the so-called leader’s debates. I am not going to argue about the merits of the so-called debates, we all know it’s a stitch up to try to maintain the status quo by excluding the Greens, Plaid and the SNP.
But just think about the actual debates. Miliband is a very poor performer at PMQs, he rarely gets one over on Cameron, and while both are equally as vacuous as each other, Miliband is gaff man. His timing is poor; he tends to stick to his script even when getting a pasting. Miliband looks terrified every time he stands up to speak and rarely has a punchline that sticks on Teflon Dave.
Evidence suggests that the more the public see of Ed Miliband the more they dislike him and he comes across more of the public school boy than David Cameron does. I mean who forgets talking about the economy at their Conference speech, he is nervous, can’t be spontaneous and has never came up with one good policy idea that hasn’t taken a year to decide. Add on to this the idea that Labour might try to cover this up by pushing Balls, Alexander, Murphy and Curran to the fore and you have the disaster that is the so-called best of Labour actually being in the public eye.
I don’t even think that Miliband can beat Clegg, the debates might even give Clegg a tiny poll bounce at the expense of Miliband; add in Farage who sadly will wipe the floor with him as well and you have Labours worst nightmare. So will Labour keep a lead up to polling day and will it be enough? My view is that things will be pretty much neck and neck on the day but that Labour will not get enough votes to win, and I suspect might even suffer a narrow loss if Miliband is front and centre.
It will be an interesting election, ESP in Scotland. Will the polls in Scotland result in the massive SNP breakthrough that is predicted. I hope so but I doubt it due to the first past the post system, and the obvious onslaught from the media and the three unionist parties working together as they did during the referendum to keep the SNP out as best they can.
I would love the SNP to get 20 plus seats but time will tell. Right now I am hopeful but that’s all I am as we all know the lengths the unionists and their pals in the media will go to preserve their union. One thing I am certain of though is that Labour will not win enough seats to form a government and Miliband might just lose the whole thing along with the worse shadow cabinet in the history of the Labour movement.