The Tories will WIN the General Election in 2015

I am in no doubt that the Conservatives will win the general election next year, possibly in coalition, but they will win. I have a few reasons for believing this, some of it is the polls and there are others.

It would be fair to say that this Conservative/Liberal Government have attacked the poorest and most vulnerable like no other since the Victorian age. In Iain Duncan Smith they have a man who appears to take great delight in making life unbearable for the poorest, while using these attacks on those very poor and vulnerable people to protect the wealthiest. A lot of people can see this, many people understand what is going on but not enough are doing anything about it. In the past you would have expected the Liberal movement to be a movement that truly sought the middle ground, but they would never have allowed their name to be associated with this attack on the poor and vulnerable. Labour, when they were Labour, would never for one minute have accepted these attacks. How far we have come in such a short space of time, Thatcher’s greatest achievement was not that she modernised Britain as some would claim, her greatest achievement was that she turned the Labour Party into the Conservative Party of the North and the Liberal Party into another branch of the Tories.

However my opinion is based on what the current polls indicate and that is that the Conservatives have climbed 5 points to 33% in today’s Ashcroft National Poll, giving them a 2-point lead over Labour, who are down 2 points on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, UKIP down 2 points at 15%, and the Greens down 1 point at 6%. This means that as things stand, with the worst Government in recent memory, Labour under Ed Miliband will not win. The Liberals are basically finished as a major player so we are looking at a Conservative/UKip or Conservative/Liberal coalition government in 2015; I think UKip might just get enough seats for the first time to matter. I also suspect that the Liberals will have some say as first past the post means they still might come away with 10 to 20 seats.

So, given that most of the country north of London is living in poverty, hundreds of thousands of people have had to use foodbanks over the last few years, most unemployed people in Scotland are sanctioned by Iain Duncan Smiths department, even the terminally ill, over 80% of the so-called new jobs created have been created in London and Ed Miliband still can’t get a lead. This says it all really, Labour cannot and will not win as long as they persist with a Leader who people just don’t like, a shadow cabinet of Balls, Murphy, Alexander etc who people don’t trust as well as not like. In Scotland we have something for nothing Lamont and hate filled Labour members attacking the campaign for independence with some of the most hate filled rubbish you will ever read but protected by a media who’s own shift to the right makes them complicit in the state of the UK right now.

The feeling I get when I watch the news or look at things online is that many people are angry, many many people are suffering in most of the country but they don’t know what to do. In many ways we have become powerless, the Tories are running everything into the ground to appease the wealthy, like the landowners of old, very few voters in England (where governments are actually decided) trust Labour so many will shift their vote to UKIp and many will stay with the Tories as they can see no alternative. The politicians, in the main, don’t care what the ordinary members think anymore. They only care what the minority think, in Labours case they know they will get their millions from Unite no matter what the ordinary members think, the Tories also know that they will never ever run out of money because when push comes to shove the elite will support them.

So, the polls may be correct, given the total lack of any real opposition, given that Labour are bereft of any real alternative narrative or talent, the fact that Nick Clegg and his ilk have virtually killed off the Liberal movement from within and the rise of UKIp down south we are looking at a Conservative led government in 2015. If that does not give people pause for thought regarding how they vote in September nothing will, most of the cuts are still to come, what kind of Scotland will we have in 5 years time, it certainly will be a hell of a lot worse than the one we have now if we allow voters in the South East to continue to make our decisions for us, think before you mark your X.

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13 comments

  1. Helena Brown

    Have to say that if Labour cannot get further ahead in the polls than they have been then they have no chance. I read somewhere that they should be at least 20 points ahead by now to be in any chance of winning. Why anyone will vote for the light blue Tories is beyond me. Labour was set up by the Co-operative Movement to look after the interest of working people who were without a voice at that time. What happened to them, they were taken over by the middle classes and it is now a career. The majority of those who run the Labour Party have never had a job in their lives, not even our dear Speaker who said he was a welder actually did it long enough to get out of his apprenticeship, got in the Union and hey presto Parliament and millionaire status beckoned, shame about his constituents, well they voted for him.
    I could not agree with you more about voting the right way, but there are any amount of people who vote against their best interest, why I have no idea.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Helena

      That is a good point and I hadn’t considered that they haven’t actually started on Miliband yet, once that happens people will see things shift but I bet they don’t start before September.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

      • Mukkinese

        Well now they have started on Miliband.

        The press has been battering him hard for the last week or so and it has not affected Labours share of voting intentions polls one jot.

        The tantrum over Junckers helped Cameron pull back some support from UKIP voters, but they haven’t begun to dent Labours core vote, which they will need to do if they are to win…

  2. Sod the system

    I do think we are heading for another hung parliament, however, I think it will then become a majority for Tory after the 59 Scottish MPs are abolished on 16/3/16.

    So any coalition will become irrelevant, Tory should want a yes vote, they would win every time down south after that. With ease. So why don’t they? Because they care? Do they buggery. We are profitable and that’s why they want us to stay. To keep the profit they have arranged it in a way so our vote doesn’t matter anyway to keep them in power.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Sod

      I think it will be close as things stand now but as Helena has noted the tories haven’t really started in on Miliband yet. UKIP will get seats but not many as will the Liberals. The problem is still the fact that Labour are just not trusted and come across as very lightweight.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

  3. bringiton

    Why are so many Scots stuck in general election mode with respect to the referendum?
    Some think that a No vote is a vote for a possible Labour government next year but in reality is a guarantee of further Tory governments if not next year then down the road.
    The referendum is about bringing democracy to Scotland for the first time and nothing more.
    We Scots can then decide what OUR governments will look like and what policies will be enacted for our benefit.
    This is the main reason the No Thanks mob will not debate the Yes campaign because they have no answer to this fundamental issue.
    Thanks Bruce.

    • Sod the system

      Even with a yes vote there will be the general election for a government who will rule us for about 9 months. But turn out will be low

    • grumpyscottishman

      Bringiton

      Totally agree and I say it to everyone who bangs on about the economy etc that it is about democracy and has always been about democracy. Doesn’t matter if we are worse off its about making our own mistakes.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Bruce

    • Helena Brown

      Hope you do not think I am as I think a YES vote is the one way of getting our country back, I am hoping and praying we will just have a laugh at the GE at Westminster though I do not think returning a pro YES majority and in that I mean Greens, Scottish Socialist and that the NO vote is punished would do a bit of harm.

  4. Mukkinese

    I disagree entirely.

    Most of the Tory gains recently have been taken from UKIP, but even if they took all their defectors back from UKIP, which is itself unlikely, they would still need more.

    The Tories need a lead of at least 6% of the vote to become the biggest party and to get that they will need to cut into Labours vote share. Labour have held a share of Voting intentions in the mid to high thirties for some time and that does not look like softening even a little.

    • grumpyscottishman

      Mukkinese

      Thanks for your comments but the Tories have pulled ahead by a point in one poll and have been closing the gap for a couple of months. Milibands individual poll ratings continue to be very poor overall and the general feeling is he can’t win. The Tories I suspect will just be the largest party and no more and will rely on the Liberals to form another coalition government. I don’t see UKip making a big impact but they might get a seat or two. Labour will not be able to put a coalition together because the Liberals will never acxcept Miliband as PM. When you add in Ed Balls and the Murphs of the world Labour are vacuous to say the least. I also suspect that if Scotland votes YES Labour are dead and buried, but Cameron might be also, so it could all be up for grabs. But I stick to my opinion that the Tories will form the next Government.

      Thanks

      Bruce

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