I am in no doubt that the Conservatives will win the general election next year, possibly in coalition, but they will win. I have a few reasons for believing this, some of it is the polls and there are others.
It would be fair to say that this Conservative/Liberal Government have attacked the poorest and most vulnerable like no other since the Victorian age. In Iain Duncan Smith they have a man who appears to take great delight in making life unbearable for the poorest, while using these attacks on those very poor and vulnerable people to protect the wealthiest. A lot of people can see this, many people understand what is going on but not enough are doing anything about it. In the past you would have expected the Liberal movement to be a movement that truly sought the middle ground, but they would never have allowed their name to be associated with this attack on the poor and vulnerable. Labour, when they were Labour, would never for one minute have accepted these attacks. How far we have come in such a short space of time, Thatcher’s greatest achievement was not that she modernised Britain as some would claim, her greatest achievement was that she turned the Labour Party into the Conservative Party of the North and the Liberal Party into another branch of the Tories.
However my opinion is based on what the current polls indicate and that is that the Conservatives have climbed 5 points to 33% in today’s Ashcroft National Poll, giving them a 2-point lead over Labour, who are down 2 points on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, UKIP down 2 points at 15%, and the Greens down 1 point at 6%. This means that as things stand, with the worst Government in recent memory, Labour under Ed Miliband will not win. The Liberals are basically finished as a major player so we are looking at a Conservative/UKip or Conservative/Liberal coalition government in 2015; I think UKip might just get enough seats for the first time to matter. I also suspect that the Liberals will have some say as first past the post means they still might come away with 10 to 20 seats.
So, given that most of the country north of London is living in poverty, hundreds of thousands of people have had to use foodbanks over the last few years, most unemployed people in Scotland are sanctioned by Iain Duncan Smiths department, even the terminally ill, over 80% of the so-called new jobs created have been created in London and Ed Miliband still can’t get a lead. This says it all really, Labour cannot and will not win as long as they persist with a Leader who people just don’t like, a shadow cabinet of Balls, Murphy, Alexander etc who people don’t trust as well as not like. In Scotland we have something for nothing Lamont and hate filled Labour members attacking the campaign for independence with some of the most hate filled rubbish you will ever read but protected by a media who’s own shift to the right makes them complicit in the state of the UK right now.
The feeling I get when I watch the news or look at things online is that many people are angry, many many people are suffering in most of the country but they don’t know what to do. In many ways we have become powerless, the Tories are running everything into the ground to appease the wealthy, like the landowners of old, very few voters in England (where governments are actually decided) trust Labour so many will shift their vote to UKIp and many will stay with the Tories as they can see no alternative. The politicians, in the main, don’t care what the ordinary members think anymore. They only care what the minority think, in Labours case they know they will get their millions from Unite no matter what the ordinary members think, the Tories also know that they will never ever run out of money because when push comes to shove the elite will support them.
So, the polls may be correct, given the total lack of any real opposition, given that Labour are bereft of any real alternative narrative or talent, the fact that Nick Clegg and his ilk have virtually killed off the Liberal movement from within and the rise of UKIp down south we are looking at a Conservative led government in 2015. If that does not give people pause for thought regarding how they vote in September nothing will, most of the cuts are still to come, what kind of Scotland will we have in 5 years time, it certainly will be a hell of a lot worse than the one we have now if we allow voters in the South East to continue to make our decisions for us, think before you mark your X.